894
FXUS64 KMRX 290214
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1014 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Forecast is on excellent track this evening so no serious updates
were made except to reduce winds in the valley. Low confidence on
the wind advisory in the foothills but left it in place. High-res
guidance has indicated some patchy fog late overnight in
northeast Tennessee. Otherwise should be a great overnight into
another warm and lovely Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry and warm conditions continue.

2. Another night of gusty winds in the mountains and adjacent
foothills seems on tap. Gusts of 40-45 mph seems reasonable.

Discussion:

An upper trough will lift northeast from the central plains this
afternoon, into the upper midwest by tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Ridging aloft will hang in there over the southeast through late
tonight before height falls begin to spread east across TN tomorrow
as the effects of the midwest trough begin to be seen. Overall, not
a lot of change in the sensible weather locally through the short
term period. We`ll remain dry across the forecast area as rain holds
off until the first parts of the long term period. And we should see
another day of above normal temperatures tomorrow, with highs in the
low 80s expected.

Admittedly, did not see the advisory level winds coming last night.
Cove Mountain gusted to around 50 mph last night, which was quite a
bit more than I would have expected. I noticed high resolution
guidance showing some downslope flow, but 40-50 mph winds were not
expected. Given tonight is virtually a carbon copy, am inclined to
hoist up another wind advisory for portions of the east TN mountains
again tonight. Once the boundary layer decouples and resulting H85
flow strengthens, guidance indicates we`ll see a repeat of this
situation, with high resolution model output once again showing
gusty winds spreading into the mountain wave-prone areas. Additional
support comes in the form of the SPC HREF output, which shows
ensemble mean wind gusts of 35-40mph in those same areas, and
ensemble max gusts in the 45 mph range. Certainly not a slam dunk,
but given what`s occurred the last two days, it seems reasonable to
issue another advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

1. Continued above normal temperatures through the upcoming week.

2. Active weather pattern to bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday and Friday through early next week.

Discussion:

The period begins Monday night with a cold front knocking on our
door from the west. Showers and some thunderstorms will increase in
coverage late Monday into Tuesday. SPC currently does not have us
under any convective threat besides general thunderstorms, but that
could change. I wouldn`t rule out any storm becoming strong,
however. Currently, CAPE values are much better towards the Gulf
Coast. Precipitation amounts to no more than three quarters of an
inch across our area. Low to mid 80 highs Monday will cool to around
climatological norms Tuesday.

Much of Wednesday into Thursday should be mostly dry with surface
high pressure just off the southeast coast and ridging extending up
from the Gulf. As a result, highs will push into the low to mid 80`s
Wednesday until the week`s end. Possibly upper 80`s on Thursday. For
many, that is approximately 10 degrees above normal for the end of
April.

The end of the week and into early next week becomes a bit out of
focus as a system that develops over the middle country sends a low
pressure system towards the Great Lakes with an attached cold front.
Chances for precip exist much of the weekend as the system
potentially stalls just to our southeast after moving through the
area around Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Mainly VFR through the period with two caveats. First, potential
for a few hours of MVFR at CHA around daybreak. Second, potential
for fog, potentially dense, briefly at TRI before daybreak.
Clouds and fog will scatter out after 13z and return to all VFR
thereafter. Medium confidence on gusty winds at CHA overnight,
winds elsewhere will remain light, especially at TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             56  83  64  77 /   0   0  70  70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  57  83  62  76 /   0   0  40  80
Oak Ridge, TN                       56  83  62  76 /   0   0  50  80
Tri Cities Airport, TN              54  82  56  75 /   0   0  30  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for Blount Smoky Mountains-
     Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
     Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wellington
LONG TERM....KS
AVIATION...Wellington