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000
FNUS75 KMSO 132357
FWSMSO

Spot Forecast for Blackfoot-Clearwater Echo
National Weather Service Missoula MT
557 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2000 MDT on April 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow
(Sunday) afternoon and evening. The region is under a col, that is
it`s between easterly flow to the south due to a cutoff low moving
across the U.S. Southwest and westerly flow to the north with the
normal storm track. As a result, storm motion tomorrow will be
very awkward. Current forecasts indicate showers will start in the
afternoon around 1500 MDT and track from the southeast to the
northwest. Around 1900 MDT, models show the storm motion changing
to a more typical west to east direction. However, the storm
motion is very sensitive to the location and timing of the low
pressure system south of the region, so the uncertainty in the
timing of the storm motion is high.

There isn`t much moisture for the storms to work with, so the
chance of wetting rain is only 20 percent, but if the burn area is
under a storm as they slow down and change direction, a quarter
inch or more of rain is possible.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

* Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...0 percent.
* Chance Lightning....0 percent.
* Min Temperature.....40-45.
* Max Humidity........70-80 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........South around 5 mph early in the evening
  becoming variable 2-4 mph.
* Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
* Mixing Winds........Northeast 5 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.00 inches.

.SUNDAY...

* Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers
  in the afternoon.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...Less than 10 percent.
* Chance Lightning....Up to 10 percent.
* Max Temperature.....73-78.
* Min Humidity........22-27 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........Variable 2-4 mph becoming southwest 5-7 mph
  in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl increasing to 8000 ft agl.
* Mixing Winds........Southeast 5 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.00 inches.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

* Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers and
  slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...20 percent.
* Chance Lightning....20 percent.
* Min Temperature.....39-44.
* Max Humidity........85-95 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........West 6-7 mph.
* Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl decreasing to 500 ft agl.
* Mixing Winds........West 10 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.08 inches.

.MONDAY...

* Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...0 percent.
* Chance Lightning....0 percent.
* Max Temperature.....60-65.
* Min Humidity........26-31 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 5-7 mph increasing to west 20-21
  mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl increasing to 5500 ft agl in the
  afternoon.
* Mixing Winds........West 15 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.00 inches.

$$
Forecaster...Leach
Requested by...Valentijn Hoff
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410665.0/MSO
.DELDT 04/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL valentijn.hoff@firecenter.umt.edu