Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
638 FXUS66 KMTR 292107 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 207 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1202 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 High pressure brings quiet weather and slowly warming temperatures this week. Breezy onshore winds will keep temperatures along the coast cooler however. Cooler and more unsettled conditions return for next weekend into next week with light rain chances in the forecast. && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Quite a different scene as compared to the last few mornings as skies are currently clear across the region. Clear skies will allow for temperatures to reach the upper 50s on the beaches and the mid 70s in the warmest inland valley locations. Strong northwesterly winds will continue today with most locations likely to receive gusts of 25 mph, especially along the immediate coastline and higher peaks. These strong northwesterly winds are also resulting in poor marine conditions. No update needed... && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 203 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Eastward moving high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean is allowing for the pressure gradient to tighten, leading to strong and gusty northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph, especially along the immediate coastline and higher peaks. The primary impact from these strong and gusty northwesterly winds are for mariners as Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories are in effect until at least 3 AM Tuesday for all marine zones. High pressure is also allowing for a warming trend to take place with interior locations reaching the 70s while the coast will be kept cool in the upper 50s due to the persistent northwesterly wind. Skies will remain clear overnight with lows in the 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 203 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A subtle ridge will be present over California through Friday, allowing for clear skies and warm weather. While we continue to be below Wind Advisory criteria, northwesterly winds will continue to be strong and gusty, with elevations above 2,500 feet expected to see gusts in the 40-50 mph range. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week with the coast reaching the upper 60s and interior locations reaching 80 degrees as the pressure gradient is allowed to relax and winds begin to diminish. HeatRisk does reach minor criteria on Thursday, so ensure to stay adequately hydrated and apply sunscreen! By Saturday, the pattern changes as an upper-level low approaches the Pacific Northwest and its associated weak cold front drops into California. There is uncertainty in location and strength of the low, but the latest forecast update has extended Probability of Precipitation chances further south. The rain is forecast to be light and unimpactful with higher elevations reaching up to a quarter of an inch. This trend of cooler and wetter weather is set to continue into the first full week of May. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR all terminals through the forecast period. Similar to yesterday, the bigger impact will be winds. Strong onshore flow will keep gusty winds over the next 24-36 hrs with a rather mixed boundary layer. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Borderline AWW criteria again today. Yesterday did reach criteria (>35kts), but today`s latest probabilistic guidance is less enthusiastic with about 10-20% of exceeding 35kts. Will be watching trends through the afternoon an a AWW may be needed. Of higher confidence will be impacts with crosswinds on the 01s. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Prev tafs have a SCT deck for Tuesday AM. Left that in as ensembles show 20% of seeing a cig. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 950 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Hazardous conditions will prevail over the coastal waters through midweek thanks to persistent gusty northerly winds. Gale force winds with gusts 40 to 45 knots will be possible over the outer waters and portions of the immediate coast near Point Reyes and Point Sur. The strong winds will result in fresh steep wind waves with heights reaching 10 to 12 feet. Conditions will gradually improve late in the week into next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea