270
FXUS64 KOHX 021645
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1145 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Dry and relatively quiet day so far across the mid state, with
temperatures already in the 80s for many locations. Highs are
still expected to get to the mid to upper 80s, with even a reading
hitting 90 possible this afternoon thanks to the upper ridge thats
currently moving eastward. An approaching shortwave trough from
the southwest will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area
likely after midnight and through the day Friday. The trough does
weaken as it moves over the mid state, and another weak shortwave
follows behind for Friday evening/overnight. Despite a weak cold
front moving through Friday, severe storm chances are low, which
is due to the deep layer shear remaining weak due to the
shortwaves also being on the weak side. Instability will still be
in place, so cant rule out some heavy downpours and even some
isolated gusty winds, but lightning will be the focus for any
outdoor events tomorrow and into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Saturday will see continued chances for showers and storms,
especially in the south and east as the weak shortwave trough
moves northeastward. A break in the showers and storms looks
possible Saturday night into the morning Sunday with mainly
isolated chances for rain, but yet another trough and diurnal
support brings showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast
Sunday afternoon. A stronger upper trough will be just off to our
west, but still deep layer shear will remain weak, so the severe
storm threat remains low at this time.

Temperatures will remain warm next week as southwest flow aloft
stays in place, but that also keeps the active pattern going with
any disturbance aloft allowing for showers and storms to develop.
Current forecast has rain chances in each day next week, mainly
during the afternoon and evening when diurnal support is best.
Rainfall amounts tonight through Thursday next week look to be
around 1 to 2 inches for most of the area, but obviously any
stronger convection would bring the potential for locally higher
amounts of rain. Models are not on board with any severe risk next
week either as of current runs this morning, so it looks to be
mainly afternoon showers and storms bringing some needed rainfall,
but stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

High clouds are beginning to stream into Middle Tennessee ahead of
an approaching surface boundary. The remainder of the day and
evening should remain VFR, but look for scattered showers and
maybe a storm or two to begin developing after 06Z, along with
MVFR (and possibly IFR) ceilings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  79  65  81 /  60  80  80  60
Clarksville    65  77  63  81 /  80  80  40  50
Crossville     62  76  61  75 /  30  80  90  80
Columbia       65  79  64  82 /  60  80  80  70
Cookeville     65  76  63  76 /  40  90  90  80
Jamestown      62  77  61  76 /  30  90  90  80
Lawrenceburg   66  79  64  80 /  50  80  80  70
Murfreesboro   66  79  64  81 /  50  80  80  70
Waverly        65  77  63  81 /  80  80  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....Rose