660
FXUS64 KOHX 290654
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
154 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

High clouds are filtering into the Middle Tennessee tonight with
temperatures in 60s currently. Those clouds will thicken as the
day goes on as our next rain maker approaches. Showers will be
possible in the northwest as soon as this afternoon but the higher
rain chances will likely hold off until after 00z for the majority
of the CWA as the shortwave trough approaches. The thinking with
this system remains unchanged. There will be some embedded storms
but lapse rates look weak and soundings look saturated. We are not
expecting strong storms but rain rates could be efficient at
times. The deterministic HRRR has some swaths of 2"+ by the time
the showers and storms exit the area on Tuesday. Median values of
the HREF are between 0.75-1.25". Showers and storms will be slow
to completely clear the area on Tuesday and shower/storm chances
will drag into Tuesday afternoon on the plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Behind Monday and Tuesday`s rain temperatures will not cool down.
In fact, upper level ridging will quickly build into the area on
Wednesday with highs climbing into the mid 80s for areas west of
the plateau. That warming trend will continue on Thursday as
southerly flow ramps up ahead of our next rain chance. A few
locations will reach into the upper 80s Thursday afternoon.
Showers and storms move into Middle Tennessee as early as
Thursday night ahead of a shortwave in the southwesterly upper
level flow. Models begin to diverge once the shortwave moves east
of the area on Friday. It looks like there could be some rain
chances this weekend but we`ll have to wait to sort out the
details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions will continue through Monday afternoon. Showers and
possibly some storms will begin to impact the CKV/BNA/MQY from
west to east late Monday afternoon through the evening hours.
Visibilities could drop to MVFR at times during heavy rain. Cigs
will deteriorate to MVFR after 00z at CKV and after 03z and
BNA/MQY. CSV and SRB should remain VFR through the taf period.
Winds will continue to be southerly for the forecast generally
between 5-10 kts. Gusts around 20 kts are expected during the
daylight hours on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      83  64  81  59 /  30 100  40   0
Clarksville    78  61  80  58 /  70 100  10   0
Crossville     78  59  71  53 /  10  90  80  10
Columbia       82  62  80  56 /  30  90  30   0
Cookeville     80  61  73  56 /  10  90  80  10
Jamestown      79  59  71  53 /  10  90  80  10
Lawrenceburg   81  62  79  56 /  20  90  50   0
Murfreesboro   83  62  79  56 /  20  90  60   0
Waverly        80  61  80  58 /  70  90  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Reagan