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000
FXUS64 KOUN 130359
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1059 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Southerly winds will stay up a little bit tonight which will keep
overnight lows around 15 degrees warmer tonight than they were this
morning.

A developing lee sfc low is expected to move into western/NW KS
Saturday. Strengthening pressure gradient is expected to develop
leading to breezy/gusty southerly winds. These winds will combine
with warm temperatures RH in the 18 to 25% range to create elevated
fire weather conditions in NW OK Saturday afternoon.

Speaking of temperatures, warmer temperatures are expected Saturday
with highs in the 80s to near 90 across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Main Concern: Severe weather Monday into early Tuesday

Sunday is not expected be as breezy as Saturday but with southwest
winds drier air is expected to move into parts of the fa behind a
dryline. The slowest wind speeds are expected in areas with the
driest vegetation so elevated fire weather conditions will be
unlikely but can not completely rule it out is a few areas.

Focus now shifts to Monday into Tuesday:

Models continue to show an upper trough/low moving from the Four
Corners Monday into the central/southern Plains on Tuesday. At the
sfc, models show a dryline extending across the southern Plains.
There is some uncertainty on the timing of the upper system and how
far east the dryline will be by Monday afternoon. Trends for some of
the models over the last couple of runs is to slow down the upper
system and not having the dryline progressing as far east as
previous runs. The position of the dryline will have an impact on
storm development/timing and the potential for fire weather concerns.

Moisture will advect northward east of the dryline with 60s
dewpoints expected across much of the area. Storms are expected to
initiate near/east of the dryline, especially aided with broad scale
lift as the upper system gets closer. Instability and shear will be
sufficient for severe storms with all hazards possible. Severe
storms will remain possible into early Tuesday especially if the
slower solution of the models is correct. So in summary,
storms/severe storms are likely there is just a question on how much
of the fa will be affected and the timing of the severe storms.

Current forecast has at least some of the far western parts of the
fa remaining behind the dryline so elevated/near critical fire
weather conditions will be possible, mainly in NW OK. However, like
previously mentioned if the dryline is farther east than forecasted,
more of the area could experience these fire weather conditions and
conditions could reach as high as critical but if the dryline stays
west of the 100th meridian then fire weather will not be as much of a
concern.

After early Tuesday, the forecast will remain dry with warm
temperatures (highs 80s and 90s) continuing. Models show a strong
cold front moving across the area Wednesday night/Thursday which
could bring another chance for showers/storms and will lead to
cooler temperatures for the end of the week with highs in the 60s
and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions continue.

Lighter surface wind overnight with strong LLJ will create LLWS at
all sites but DUA. Few high clouds expected across the south.
South to southwest winds will increase quickly Saturday morning
with gusts of 25 to 30kts expected. Winds will remain a bit
stronger through 06Z tomorrow evening but still appears LLWS will
be present.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  81  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         53  83  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  57  85  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           54  88  51  91 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     53  83  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         56  81  60  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...30