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000
FXUS64 KOUN 151735
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Relatively low confidence on timing/evolution of severe weather
today and tonight. Given strength of incoming storm system and the
time of year, we believe there is a high probability for severe
weather in and near our CWA, but the coverage of storms is
uncertain and may be much less than previously thought. Persistent
model signal is for late afternoon storms to form near our
western north Texas counties and progress east and northeast,
possibly affecting western north Texas and far southern Oklahoma
through mid-evening. Supercell storms with very large hail will
be the main concern, but there is also a threat of a tornado as
well as this particular area will be in a region with deeper
moisture. Areas farther north in the body of Oklahoma will still
need to be watched, but all available guidance suggest storms
would be isolated or non- existent due to cap and lack of
sufficient moistening/heating to break it.

A few days ago, the NAM was an outlier in forecasting a fairly
substantial cap/EML, and now more (most) of the CAMs are doing the
same. This is likely one of the major reasons there is a lack of
convective initiation in the models. A model that has not caught on
to the stronger cap is the ECM, and it is concerning given favorable
pre-frontal wind fields. With the eastward progression of the cold
front overnight, along with continued (although weaker) height falls
and continued increasing lower level moisture, our guard should not
be let down for overnight/early Tuesday morning impactful severe
weather near/east of the front. Hopefully, the mode is more or
less linear as opposed to discrete storms. This is where model
trends will be watched closely the next 12 to 18 hours.

In addition to the severe weather potential today, there will still
be a window of low RH and gusty southerly winds across northwest
Oklahoma early to mid afternoon, before dryline retreats westward
into the eastern Panhandles. This will create at least a few hours
of near critical to critical fire weather conditions in portions
of Ellis and Harper counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

On Tuesday, temperatures will be similar to Monday behind the weak
front, but it will be much drier with gusty westerly winds. The
driest air and strongest winds are expected across northern Oklahoma
where critical fire weather conditions are possible. Confidence in
the critical fire weather conditions is increasing due to the lower
chances for appreciable coverage/amounts of rain Monday night.

Medium range models are in decent agreement on timing of the cold
front Thursday which will bring temperatures down closer to and even
below average for the end of the week and next weekend. With
southwest flow aloft and minor s/wv troughs passing over the region
as well, periods of scattered showers and perhaps isolated
thunderstorms expected at least through the first half of the
weekend. While no organized severe storms are currently expected
during this time frame, we will need to watch for the potential
for severe storms associated with the cold frontal passage across
southeast Oklahoma on Thursday due to availability of moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The stratus this morning is slowly eroding/lifting with ceilings
generally MVFR or VFR and that trend will continue, although MVFR
ceilings will likely linger in southeast Oklahoma. A few areas of
showers and elevated thunderstorms will move across the area,
although much of what is seen on radar right now will be virga.
There are a couple of waves of showers/storms expected with the
first developing in western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma
late this afternoon and moving east-northeast, and additional
showers/storms likely developing in a north-south line along a
cold front that will move across the area overnight. MVFR and
locally IFR ceilings will redevelop this evening as well.
Skies will clear from west to east on Tuesday morning with drier
air and gutsy southwesterly or westerly winds behind the cold
front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  62  80  54 /  30  60   0   0
Hobart OK         80  54  83  51 /  30  50   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  80  59  85  55 /  40  60   0   0
Gage OK           84  53  83  48 /  10  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     80  62  81  52 /  20  60  10   0
Durant OK         75  65  84  61 /  20  60  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...26