094
FXUS65 KPSR 142346
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
446 PM MST Tue May 14 2024

.UPDATE...Updated 00z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend. Lower
desert afternoon high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s
through the middle part of the week, increasing into the 100 to
105 range Friday into Sunday. Typical late afternoon and early
evening breeziness along with mainly dry conditions will
persist. Isolated afternoon shower activity will occur in the
high country through Thursday, which could cause some erratic,
gusty winds that could make their way into the Valley each
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The main concern through the forecast period will be the continued
elevated fire weather concerns due to the hot temperatures, low
humidity, and late afternoon/early evening breezy conditions.

Ensembles in overall agreement with lowering heights through
Thursday as a weak upper low moves across the region. Not much
weather with this system outside of maintaining isolated showers
across the high country to the north. With steering flow
developing from the north, especially Thursday, some late day
outflows could see their way south into portions of the Phoenix
valley with some erratic winds. This system will keep temperatures
in check, but still hot, mainly into the middle to upper 90s.
Typical afternoon breeziness will continue. Highest around
Thursday, with maybe some gusts 20 to 30 mph.

For Friday and through the weekend, heights again build across
the area ahead of troughiness developing along the west coast into
early next week. This will push temperatures up several degrees.
Lower deserts will see more widespread 100 to 105 degree readings.
The minor HeatRisk will increase into the moderate category
beginning Friday and into Saturday.

Then as we get into next week, we`ll be monitoring the trough to
our north which will likely induce gusty winds stronger than what
we have this week and further elevate fire weather concerns. Stay
tuned as we hone in on the details once we get closer.
Temperatures, however, will be several degrees lower and closer to
normal and back into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2345Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns are expected through the TAF period.
Winds will continue to favor light, diurnal tendencies with W/SW
gusts to around 15-20 kts possible at times through early this
evening. Widely scattered high-based CU have developed and will
persist into the early evening, primarily over the high terrain to
the north and east. Expect FEW-SCT decks around 12 kft along with
a few passing high clouds throughout the period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the
next 24 hours. Winds will favor a westerly component through much
of the TAF period at KIPL with gusts to around 20-25 kts this
evening before subsiding later tonight. At KBLH, winds will
maintain a S to SW component through most of the period, with
gusts to around 15-20 kts subsiding over the next few hours.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies with some passing mid to high level clouds
at times will continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions will continue into early next
week as a result of some periodic gusty winds (mainly in the
afternoon and early evening hours), dry fine fuels, and low
humidity levels. MinRH levels will be around 10% across the lower
deserts and in the teens for the higher terrain areas. Overnight
recoveries will range from poor to fair and be in the 20-50%
range. Afternoon and early evening wind gusts will be around 20-25
mph, with some periodic higher gusts possible in the higher
terrain in the eastern districts due to some high based showers
over the mountains.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frieders
AVIATION...Whittock/Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Frieders