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000
FXUS65 KPSR 170953
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
253 AM MST Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Benign weather with dry conditions and above normal temperatures
are expected through the next seven days. High temperatures will
run 10-15 degrees above normal through the next week with daily
highs in the nineties and potentially approaching 100 degrees
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry, tranquil weather with warming temperatures will continue into
the latter half of this week as flat ridging builds into the region.
Currently, WV imagery and objective analysis show a weak trough in
place over the Southwest this morning with dry northwesterly flow
aloft keeping skies mostly clear. This trough will continue to shift
east out of the area through the day today allowing 500 mb heights
to rise to around 582 dm as ridging builds into the region. This
will lead to temperatures further warming up above normal today as
lower desert highs climb into the low to mid 90s this afternoon.
With these temperatures comes widespread Minor HeatRisk that
overspreads nearly all of the forecast area.

Temperatures through the rest of the week will be similar to today
as flat ridging dominates. Troughing across the northern CONUS will
act to suppress further amplification of the ridge that would allow
for additional warming across our area. A passing weak, low
amplitude trough will move through the region Friday-Saturday,
bringing an increase in cloud cover out ahead of it on Thursday and
increased breeziness Friday. Afternoon gusts Friday are expected to
climb up to 20-30 mph across the region while a few stronger gusts
in excess of 30 mph will be possible out across Imperial County
going into Friday evening. Despite the dropping heights with the
trough passing through the region, temperatures will see minimal
change for the end of the week. The passage of the weak trough will
be replaced once again with ridging with temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 90s and potentially near the century mark in a few
warmer lower desert locales Sunday and Monday. NBM probabilities for
reaching or exceeding 100 degrees rise to around 20-40% Sunday and
Monday for some of these warmer areas across south-central Arizona
and southeast California. Outside of the increasing heat, dry
conditions will persist through the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0510Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No aviation weather concerns under mostly clear skies are expected
through the TAF period. Winds will continue to exhibit the typical
diurnal tendencies with speeds generally remaining under 10 kts.
Extended periods of nearly calm to light and variable winds are
expected.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the TAF
period. At KIPL, west winds during the overnight period will
become light and variable during the late morning before obtaining
a more predominant southeasterly direction in the afternoon and
then veering out of the southwest by the early evening hours.
Speeds during the early evening hours are likely to pick up with
gusts peaking in the mid to upper teens. At KBLH, winds during the
overnight period will become highly variable before obtaining a
more south to south-southwest component in the afternoon and
evening hours with speeds generally under 10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather conditions will persist through the next week.
Increasing high pressure over the region will yield above normal
temperatures through the next week. Daily highs will rise into
the low to mid 90s each day across the lower deserts starting
today and continuing through the remainder of this week. Min RHs
each day will be in the 5-15% range, while overnight Max RHs will
be in the 20-40% range for most areas. Light, diurnal winds will
be favored with afternoon breezes gusting upwards of 20-30 mph on
Friday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Smith