Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 222135
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
335 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing winds and temperatures leading to spotty near
  critical fire weather conditions on Saturday, then even more
  widespread critical conditions on the plains Sunday

- Weather system and strong cold front will bring rain and snow
  to the area Sunday into Monday, with accumulating snow for
  most mountain locations

- Brief break between storms for the middle of next week, then
  another potential weather system moves toward the area late
  week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates modest
west to northwest flow aloft across the Rockies, as mid and upper level
moisture embedded within the increasing southwest flow across the Great
Basin ahead of more eastern Pacific energy moving onshore across the
West Coast. GOES imagery does indicate some high clouds moving across
the Rockies, with temperatures currently in the 50s to lower 60s across
the southeast Plains, and mainly in the 40s and 50s across the higher
terrain.

Tonight and Saturday...Upper flow becomes more west to southwest and
increases through the day tomorrow, as the West Coast system digs into
the Great Basin. This will lead to breezy westerly winds developing
across the higher terrain, with induced lee troughing across the plains
bringing breezy southerly winds to the far southeast Plains overnight,
with breezy westerly also developing in banana belt areas west of the
I-25 Corridor. This will keep overnight lows on the mild side, with
lows in the 30s to lower 40s across the plains, and mainly in the 20s
across the higher terrain. Models also continue to indicate a few
showers developing along and west of the ContDvd overnight, with light
and spotty accumulations possible.

The increasing westerly flow and expected good mixing will lead to
gusty west to southwest winds of 20 to 40 mph across all of south
central and southeast Colorado through the day on Saturday, which
will also help boost temperatures into mid 60s to mid 70s across
the plains, with highs in the 40s and 50s continuing across the
higher terrain, though temperatures may be tempered by passing wave
clouds throughout the day. The breezy conditions and warm temperatures
will lead to spotty near critical fire weather conditions across the
plains on Saturday, however, conditions are not widespread enough for
any expected fire weather highlights attm. The increasing westerly flow
will also lead to increasing chances of precipitation across the ContDvd
Saturday afternoon and especially into Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Overall, models/ensembles remain in fairly good agreement
regarding the evolution/timing and track of the western U.S.
upper trough for Sunday and Monday, though still some QPF issues
remain to be clarified. In general, 22/12z model/ensemble
precip values have increased somewhat versus 24 hrs ago, though
some of the increase may be due to suspiciously high convective
QPF Sunday evening, especially in the 22/12z deterministic runs
of the NAM/GFS. Still appears front will be late enough in
arriving Sunday afternoon to allow for critical fire weather
conditions over portions of the southeast plains, especially
south of the Arkansas River, and have kept current Fire Weather
Watch intact for these area. Snow increases in coverage and
intensity along the Continental Divide Sunday morning, then
spreads eastward through the day, with some bursts of heavier
convective snow possible in the eastern San Juans and
over/around Pikes Peak. Mountains will need highlights (most
likely Winter Weather Advisories) beginning sometime Sunday,
though after conferring with surrounding offices, will wait for
one more model cycle before any issuance.

Over the southeast mountains/I-25 corridor and plains, cold
front races south late Sunday afternoon, with strong north winds
and precip filling in behind it. While models may be overdoing
amount of post-frontal convection, still appears we`ll see at
least a brief burst of heavier snow (maybe some thunder as well)
in Teller/El Paso Counties Sunday evening where forcing is
greatest, while Wets/Sangres see lighter snowfall as low level
upslope wind component is lacking. Precip starts as rain below
6k feet, though snow levels drop quickly in the evening, and
would expect all precip to be all snow by around midnight, even
over the far east. This opens a window for at least some
accumulations at lower elevations into Monday morning,
especially over areas south of the Arkansas River where strong
northerly wind component gives precip an upslope boost. Winds
overnight Sunday will be strong, with gusts in the 30-40 mph
range widespread, and some potential for gusts 45-55 mph over
along and north of the Arkansas River, including El Paso County.
If this trend continues, may need some winter wx highlights for
snow/blowing snow even on the plains for at least a brief
period Mon morning. Surface and mid level low lift quickly east
into the central plains during the day Monday, with snow
diminishing from north to south through the day. Overall,
eastern mountain accumulations look to range from 5 to 10
inches, heaviest over the higher elevations of Teller County and
perhaps down around Cuchara/La Veta Pass, where snow will
linger well into the day on Mon.

After Mon, last piece of the upper trough will keep mountain
snow showers going Mon night into Tue, though accums through the
period look light. Brief upper ridge for Wed with warmer/drier
conditions, before next trough approaches for a return to
mountain snow and plains wind for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours, with
breezy south to southeast winds 10-20kts at the terminals this afternoon
diminishing through the evening. Breezy west to southwest of 15-30kts
develop at the terminals Saturday morning, with passing mid and high level
wave clouds.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ233-235>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WANKOWSKI
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...WANKOWSKI


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