871
FXUS65 KPUB 071958
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Riverton WY
158 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very strong and possibly damaging winds will continue today,
  mainly across the San Luis Valley, the Sangres, Fremont
  County, and the Southern I-25 corridor.

- High Fire Danger will also continue across portions of the
  area today.

- Moderate snow with gusty winds continue to fall around
  Leadville, with 2 to 4 more inches of accumulation through mid
  evening.

- Cooler and mainly dry for Wednesday, with high fire danger
  once again in the San Luis Valley.

- Unsettled weather pattern starting Thursday, and lasting over
  the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Moderate snow continues in and around Leadville this afternoon,
and should continue through the early evening hours, with a few
more inches of accumulation possible, along with gusty winds
from 25 to 50 mph, depending on elevation. Short-term high-
resolution models are indicating this area of heavier snow. Thus,
a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the area through
900 PM.

The Freeze Watch for the southern two-thirds of El Paso County
has been cancelled. Temperatures are expected to be a couple of
degrees warmer than the previous forecast, and winds should
remain breezy overnight in the 8-12 mph range. These conditions
should prevent widespread freezing, though localized pockets
could still develop in the early morning hours, especially if
winds become very light, such as at the lowest elevations and
near creeks and rivers. A Freeze Warning is still in effect for
the higher elevations of northern El Paso County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Currently..

Satellite imagery shows the departing low moving off into the
Dakotas, leaving Colorado in very strong westerly flow aloft.
Strongest winds this morning are currently over El Paso County.
USAFA is reporting 56 mph westerly winds as of 2am, indicating
possible mountain wave activity over western El Paso COunty early
this morning. Expecting mountain wave activity to diminish this
morning, with brute force winds under favorable jet placement to
takeover by sunrise.

Rest of Today..

Models bring strongest brute forcing and most favorable jet
placement overhead this afternoon, bringing the possibility for
damaging wind gusts to our eastern mountains, the San Luis Valley,
Fremont County, and gap flow areas of Pueblo, Huerfano, and western
Las Animas counties as well. Winds are expected to be due westerly
for most of the day, with gusts to 60 mph across lower elevations,
and gusts to 75 mph across higher peaks of the Sangres and the Wets.
Some gust to 75 mph will be possible across the far southwestern
corner of the Chaffee County as well over the higher terrain. Along
with damaging wind concerns, high fire danger and areas of blowing
dust will be possible today as well. Red Flag Warnings are in place
over the San Luis Valley, Fremont County, and the southeast plains,
where relative humidities are expected to fall into the single
digits and winds are expected to gust well over critical thresholds.
High winds will also make for danger travel conditions on area
roadways, especially for light and high profile vehicles, and
especially on north-south oriented roadways to include I-25. Areas
of blowing dust could also cause travel concerns on area roadways
today due to low visibilities. Daytime highs today will be near
normal for many locations, though cooler temperatures will follow
for our overnight hours. Winds are expected to die down
significantly after sunset. Mostly clear skies will help us to cool
efficiently as well, with many locations getting to near or below
normal for overnight lows. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for
southern El Paso County, and a Freeze Warning has been issued for
northern El Paso County.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

The extended forecast period, beyond Wednesday, looks very messy and
somewhat unsettled, and forecast confidence is low.

Wednesday...The upper low center will be located over WY, NE and the
Dakotas Wed morning, still producing strong westerly flow aloft
across the region. However, the upper jet that has been positioned
over CO the past few days will be starting to move out, so all
indications point to lessening wind through the day Wed. The upper
low center will edge to the east, splitting an orphan low center off
back across NV and UT. At the same time, a piece of energy rotating
around the low will drop a cold front down into eastern CO Wed
night. Save for a few isolated showers over the central mts and the
Palmer Divide, it should stay dry through the day. As for fire
weather concerns, feel that the San Luis Valley will once again hit
critical criteria and decided to upgrade to a Red Flag Warning
there. However, the remainder of the watch area is highly
questionable with respect to wind. After coordinating with
surrounding office, decided to leave the watch as is for now though
initial plan was to remove those zones. Plan on below normal temps
with highs in the 50s for the high valleys, and 60s to near 70F for
the plains. Freeze highlights may be needed for some locations
across the eastern plains Wed night.

Thursday and Friday...The low back across NV and UT will draw some
moisture up across the Four Corners and into western CO, while an
upper disturbance drops down across the central part of the
country. Cooler temps and a better shot of some precip will bring
the work week to a close, with scattered to likely pops over the
higher terrain, scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms
along the I-25 Corridor both days, and just isolated activity for
the eastern plains. Look for high temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s
for most locations both days.

Saturday through Monday...The upper low center over southern NV will
gradually weaken and slide east across CO over the weekend, with
isolated to scattered precipitation chances for most locations. The
extended procedure starts a warming trend for the forecast area all
three days, with high temps in the 60s for the high valleys, and 70s
to around 80F for the plains. Those temps may be in question, so
stay tuned. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions persist at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB terminals through
the forecast period. Strong winds will continue at KALS this
afternoon, with winds increasing at KCOS and KPUB later this
afternoon. Later this afternoon into the evening, a few
scattered mid-level clouds will be possible at all terminals.
Blowing dust may also cause some visibility issues through the
afternoon hours, with conditions improving as winds die down
after sunset.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for
COZ058>060.
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-224-
225-232-233-237.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ224.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ069>075-
077>080-083-086>088.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for COZ225-232-233.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for
COZ084.

&&

$$

Update...WFO Riverton
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...WFO Goodland