Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
469 FXUS65 KREV 040913 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 213 AM PDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather returns today with a strong spring storm system bringing gusty to strong winds, valley rain, and mountain snow with conditions slowly improving Sunday. For next week, a slow warming trend with low chances for precipitation remains in the forecast. && .SHORT TERM Today-Sunday... IMPORTANT CHANGES: * Precipitation: There are no significant changes to the latest forecasted liquid totals, snowfall totals, timing, or snow levels for today`s storm. Winter Storm Warnings for the eastern Sierra, and a Winter Weather Advisory for northeast CA remain in effect from 11 AM PDT today until 8 AM PDT Sunday. For more details, please visit Weather.gov/rev/winter. * Wind: There are also no major changes to the current wind forecast timing, locations, or strength for today. A High Wind Warning remains in effect from 8 AM PDT today until 8 PM PDT tonight for the Sierra Front southward through Lyon, Douglas, and Mineral counties. Elsewhere, Wind Advisories are still in effect for northern Washoe and the Surprise Valley until 5 PM PDT with Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Pyramid through 8 PM PDT. Please refer to the High Wind Warning as well as the Wind Advisories for more detailed information. KEY POINTS: * Precipitation: High resolution models and the HREF are indicating that the heaviest of the snowfall in the Sierra is still expected late morning into the early evening, with snowfall rates upwards 1- 2"/hr likely (>80%). Accumulations on roadways may be limited during the day given the time of year, but the snowfall rates may be enough to overcome this factor. Conditions in the Sierra will slowly improve overnight into Sunday morning, with minor snow showers possible during this time. However, one remaining concern is that cold overnight temperatures may lead to icy snowpacked roads in the Sierra, especially above 5,000 feet into Sunday morning. Most of the precipitation occurring in western NV will fall as rain through the afternoon. However, there is still a 20-40% chance for light snow showers for western NV later this evening into Sunday morning with little to no accumulation. * Wind: The HREF and guidance still indicate that strong winds throughout the region will materialize this morning and will continue into the evening. This may lead to travel disruptions due to strong cross winds, especially for any wind prone along US-395 from the greater Reno area all the way south into Mono County, as well as US-95 through the Hawthorne area. All area lakes will also experience strong winds creating unsafe conditions. * Temperatures: High temperatures by Sunday will fall to as much as 15-20 degrees below average for this time of year. In fact it will feel more like an average day for early February! A greater concern with the cold temperatures will be the overnight lows for Sunday and Monday mornings. Freezing temperatures of at least 32 degrees are looking likely (>60%) for most of western NV on Sunday morning. Lows for all Sierra communities will drop down into the upper teens to low 20s. * Sunday Leftovers: As the upper low pressure moves through the region on Sunday, precipitation will become more showery in nature and will mostly all be done by late morning. -McKellar .LONG TERM: Monday-Friday... Model guidance shows the upper air low opening up into more of a negatively tilted trough on Monday over the Rocky Mountains allowing for a mostly northwesterly flow over the CWA that continues through Tuesday. It also continues into Wednesday with the trough becoming more neutral over the central CONUS as a ridge moves over the Pacific Coast. As a result, temperatures look to rebound a bit though still being cooler on Monday before slightly cooling on Tuesday with a warming trend beginning on Wednesday. While the upper air pattern is unsettled at this time, signals do point to the warming trend continuing through Thursday and Friday. Precipitation chances look to be minimal at best currently during the next work week. There may be some fog concerns during the morning hours around the Truckee area during mornings to begin the work week, so will continue to monitor this potential. -078 && .AVIATION... Weekend Storm Update: A strong, unseasonably colder spring storm system is moving into the region today into early Sunday morning. * Snow/Rain: Widespread mountain snow showers and valley rains are likely (>70%) through tonight in northeast CA, the Sierra, and western NV. This colder airmass will allow for snow levels to drop to 5000-5500 feet the evening. Sierra terminals KTRK, KTVL, and KMMH could see between 3-5" of snowfall with a 80-90% chance for at least 2". However, high sun angle in May may limit accumulations on runways at those terminal during the day. There is also a slight chance for snow flurries tonight into Sunday morning for far western NV terminals (KRTS-KRNO-KCXP-KMEV). * Winds: Strong west to southwest winds will increase across the Sierra through tonight. Look for sustained ridgetop winds across the Sierra of 40-50kts with gusts upwards of 70-90kts during this time period. Expect periods of mountain wave turbulence, as well as LLWS for all area terminals. Strong west to southwest winds are possible for all western NV and Sierra terminals through tonight. -Amanda/McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this afternoon NVZ005. Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM PDT Sunday NVZ002. High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ001-003. Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ004. CA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this afternoon CAZ070. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM PDT Sunday CAZ071. Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM PDT Sunday CAZ072-073. && $$