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000
FXUS61 KRNK 160642
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
242 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary across the region will be the focus for
another chance of showers and storms today. The next low
pressure system approaches the region by the middle of the week.
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal until the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1. Scattered showers and storms possible today.

Current surface analysis indicates that the front is currently
situated roughly along the I-64 corridor as noted by the
northeast winds. Still a bit of uncertainty how far south the
front progresses today, but seems probable that it can make it
into northeastern portions of the CWA by daybreak.

Along the frontal boundary today, expecting some thunderstorms
to develop again, but coverage will again be limited and looks
to be more confined to west of the Blue Ridge. Less upper
support today for organized convection, but a few stronger
storms are possible across West Virginia and SW Virginia where
better instability is expected. Rain/storms will be limited east
of the Blue Ridge due to a more stable northeast flow.

Temperatures today still warm, but a few degrees cooler than
yesterday. Upper 70s to low 80s in the east, mid/low 70s for
the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1: Scattered showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday

2: Temperatures above normal ahead approaching frontal system


A warm front will retreat to the north on Tuesday, moving the best
chances for storms north of the CWA. However, in the warm sector of
an approaching frontal system, we will see scattered to isolated
showers and storms around the area. The best coverage on these days
is likely to be in the mountains west of the Blue Ridge, while some
more stable air further east in the Piedmont and central VA will
limit coverage. Temperatures will be in the in the upper 70s
and 80s in the warm sector and slightly cooler north of the
front, depending on how much cloud cover there is in the
morning.

An west to east moving cold front will continue the chance of
showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. The region will be well
into the warm sector leading to above normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1225 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Isolated to scattered coverage of showers and storms Friday and
Saturday with the best coverage over the mountains.

2. Decreasing precipitation chances Sunday into Monday.

3. Initially temperatures above normal Friday, but trending to below
normal by Monday.

A look at the 15 April 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential
heights shows the following scenario Friday through Monday. On
Friday, an upper trough will be centered over Hudson Bay with its
axis extending south into the Eastern Great Lakes and Lower Ohio
Valley. This feature will pivot east and northeast through Monday,
eventually placing our region with more or less a zonal flow.
Before we reach that zonal flow, there may be a wrinkle or two
within the flow in the form of a shortwave through the crosses the
region on Sunday. At the surface, expect low pressure over southern
Quebec on Friday, with an associated cold front extending south then
southwest curving over, or close to, our region on Friday. By
Saturday, limited movement eastward of this front is expected. While
high pressure is starting to make headway into western portions of
the area on Sunday, the cold front may still be in close proximity.
By Monday, the front will have moved even farther east, off the
coast of the Carolinas.

Output from the 15 Apr 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
shows 850mb temperatures around +12C to +13C over the region Friday.
Through the weekend values decrease to +4C to +8C by Saturday and
+2C to +4C by Sunday. Similar values are expected Monday.
Precipitable Water values will average around 1.00 inch Friday, 0.75
to 1.00 inch on Saturday and Sunday, and 0.50 to 0.75 inch for
Monday.

The above conditions should result in period where showers and some
storms will be more abundant Friday into Saturday, start decreasing
in coverage on Sunday, and have limited or no coverage by Monday.
The bulk of any showers and storms will occur around peak heating of
the day into and through the evening hours. Coverage most days will
be greatest across the mountains. Temperatures will average about
ten degrees above normal for Friday, near or slightly above normal
Saturday, near or slightly below normal Sunday, and near normal
Monday.

Confidence in the above scenario in broad terms is moderate, but
still lower in confidence regarding specific timing and coverage of
the precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...

Widespread VFR across the region this morning. VFR should
generally be the prevailing category outside of areas of patchy
fog that could develop later this morning, especially for LWB
and potentially for BCB/BLF. However, high clouds moving in from
the west may prevent what would have been a widespread potential
for fog.

Winds remain light today as a frontal boundary stalls over the
area. Areas east of the Blue Ridge could see light northeast
winds. Some lower SCT clouds in the 3kft to 4kft also possible
for areas that see NE winds. Areas west of the Blue Ridge
remain southerly. There is a potential for storms again along
the frontal boundary, with the best chance being from
BCB/BLF/LWB.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

A low pressure system and stronger cold front approach the area
Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
with associated MVFR flight conditions, are expected ahead of
this system Wednesday through Saturday, especially each
afternoon and evening. Most of the time should be VFR. Could
also have some fog at night.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...BMG