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000
FXUS63 KSGF 161957
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
257 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe storms possible into early evening
  along/east of Highway 63. Large hail and damaging winds are
  the primary risks.

- Windy conditions with gusts up to 35-50 mph will diminish this
  evening. The strongest winds will continue to occur along and
  west of Highway 65 where dry air will also lead to
  significant fire danger.

- Additional thunderstorm chances return Wednesday evening into
  Thursday, with strong to severe storms possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Fire weather this afternoon and evening: Very dry air is
following a dry line that is moving in from the west. This will
result in minRH of 10-25% roughly along and west of a line from
Table Rock Lake to Springfield to Lake of the Ozarks. Issued a
Red Flag Warning given strong winds, but didn`t go as far east
as the aforementioned line since the dry air won`t get into the
eastern areas until later in the day as winds are diminishing.

Convection and severe potential:

Dry mid-level air is present between the dryline near the MO/KS
and MO/OK border and deeper moisture present over the eastern
CWA, as can be seen on the SGF 19Z special sounding. This is
inhibiting the development of storms along and ahead of the dry
line, until you get to that deeper moisture over the east.
Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly along/east of
Highway 63 in the Eastern Missouri Ozarks through early evening
before the threat shifts east. Could see a few strong to severe
storms with hail up the size of half dollars and damaging winds
to 60 mph with these storms. Dropped the tornado threat as the
concern continues to decrease given increasing LCL heights and
veering surface winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Much of Wednesday will be spent with clear skies, breezy winds,
and highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. MinRH values of 20-30%
are expected area-wide, leading to elevated fire weather
concerns.

Late Wednesday evening into Wednesday night: A warm front will
shift north into the area as the low level jet strengthens and
noses into that front ahead of a surface low developing east of
the CO Rockies. CAMs suggest potential for uncapped elevated
instability and fire off elevated thunderstorms. There are still
unknowns, especially with how much instability develops and
where storms form, but the best chances should be over the
western and central CWA where the low level jet will be
strongest. Guidance suggests around 1,000 J/kg of elevated CAPE
and around 40 kts of deep layer shear. Thinking mainly a large
(1.0-1.5") hail threat, but gusty winds would also be possible.
Storms will shift north overnight Wednesday night as the front
moves northward.

For Thursday, we could see severe storms across the area as the
Wednesday night front shifts back into the area and the surface
low moves along the front. Quite a bit of differing model
output on the amount of instability that may develop along and
ahead of the front/low, but HREF interquartile ranges for MUCAPE
are 1,500-3,000 J/kg with around 40kts of deep layer shear.
Still need to work out quite a few details, especially with low
level profiles, but certainly worth watching for severe
potential. Overall expect lowest severe potential across the
northwestern CWA and greatest along and south of I-44, but that
may shift.

Main story for Friday into early next week is cooler
temperatures. Look for highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and
lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s Friday through Sunday night.
Monday and Tuesday will trend a little warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

May see some showers near KBBG and KSGF this afternoon, but
otherwise dry conditions are expected at all sites this TAF
period. Gusty southerly winds today will diminish tonight but
LLWS is expected tonight, mainly at KSGF and KBBG. Wednesday
will see breezy conditions under clear skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-066>068-
     077>079-088>090-094.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
     077-078-088-089-093-094-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Titus
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus