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000
FXUS63 KSGF 201049
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
549 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures through the weekend. Patchy frost
  northeast of Springfield Sunday morning. Widespread frost
  potential Monday morning, especially wind protected areas.

- 30-50% rain chances Monday Night into Tuesday with higher and
  more widespread chances Wednesday night through Friday.

- Slow warming trend back to near normal early in the week
  becoming above normal into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continued to show a upper level trough across the
Great Lakes, extending into Canada. A zonal mid/upper level
flow pattern was set up across the area ahead of additional
energy across the western US. An 850mb front has remained nearly
stationary across central Arkansas where some showers were
located. Some 700-500mb moisture and clouds were present from
Kansas into Missouri however surface high pressure across the
northern US continues to provide dry, northerly winds across the
low levels. Temps have already fallen into the upper 40s to
around 50 with dewpoints in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Today: Shortwave energy across the southwest will continue
spreading into the southern Plains while at the same time high
pressure slides further into the central Plains. HREF data
continues to suggest mid/high clouds at times today however the
low levels appear too dry for any precip. 850mb temps still
remain in the 2-4C range therefore highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s will be common which is about 10 degrees below
average.

Tonight: Surface high pressure will settle over Kansas with
some indication that skies may begin to clear across central
Missouri. NBM data continues to support low temps dropping into
the middle to upper 30s across the area with the coldest
readings across the northern periphery of the CWA. The main
limiting factor for frost tonight is the dry low levels. That
being said, some patchy frost may occur across central Missouri
however confidence is not high enough for a Frost Advisory at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Sunday: A shortwave will pass through the northwest flow across the
area during the day however no precip is expected. This will
just reinforce the cool/dry air in place with highs similar to
Saturday. High pressure will slide across northeast Oklahoma
into northern Arkansas Sunday night into early Monday morning.
Confidence is high that skies will be clear and winds will be
light which will lead to strong radiational cooling. Humidity
looks slightly higher and we should see a slightly higher frost
potential. NBM probs for temps < 36 are running in the 50-80%
range in the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau from the
Springfield metro and points east. Probs for temps < 32 are
below 10% therefore not looking at a freeze however a Frost
Advisory is beginning to look more likely given how warm it has
been recently and the susceptibility of growing season
vegetation.

Monday through Tuesday: A tightening pressure gradient looks to
occur across the central US as the high moves east and low
pressure develops off the Rockies. We will begin to see warming
low/mid levels therefore near normal temps look likely with
highs in the upper 60s to around 70. Shortwave energy still
looks to pass through the area on Tuesday however moisture looks
even more limited given the northerly flow across the Gulf of
Mexico the day prior. However given the strong forcing, there
should be enough for sprinkles or perhaps light rain. Precip
chances have dropped some with 30-50% chances confined to areas
northeast of Springfield. Instability also looks low with less
than a 20% chance of thunder. Clouds will have an impact on high
temps however if the system clears fast enough in the day then
highs will reach the lower 70s.

Wednesday through Friday: A pattern change still looks to occur
with a mid level ridge building in Wednesday with shortwave
energy moving through the western US. This will support warm air
advection with a low level jet developing west of the area
Wednesday night. A majority of the ensembles keep the area dry
Wednesday however the western half of the area could start
seeing precip chances increase Wednesday night and Thursday as
the low level jet edges closer. There is still some model
variance and uncertainty as the mid level ridging on Thursday
could inhibit much precip from developing. This uncertainty is
also seen in the NBM temperature percentiles with potential
highs either in the upper 60s or upper 70s, depending on
clouds/precip.

Precip chances do increase further Thursday night into Friday
as additional energy moves into the central plains. Ensemble
cluster scenarios are all favoring precip during this timeframe
with precip chances in the 40-60% range. Latest WPC Hazards
Outlook does have a heavy rainfall area outlined for our area
Thursday and Friday. The Climate Prediction Center then follows
this up with a moderate risk (40% chance) of heavy precip going
into the weekend. This is also supported by the CIPS extended
analog guidance. Severe potential is quite uncertain at this
time range, especially given the timing differences in the
ensemble guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the entire TAF period, with
mid and high clouds. Surface winds will remain out of the
north- northeast, with gusts up to 18 kts at times this
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Melto