535
FXUS64 KSHV 021808
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
108 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Strongest convection has largely exited the forecast area. Latest
high-resolution CAMs show little in the way of additional
development this afternoon, but a few isolated showers or
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the region through the
rest of day. However, additional severe weather or heavy rainfall
is not expected through this afternoon. The Flood Watch will be
maintained because an extension of the watch into Friday is
possible with this afternoon`s full forecast package issuance
because another robust thunderstorm complex is expected to move
across the area Friday morning.

PoPs were trimmed and lowered behind the exiting complex. High
temperatures were also lowered in most locations as the clouds and
rain have helped to keep temps a few degrees cooler so far.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Busy morning, so will have to keep this brief. Current MCS over N
and ECntrl TX continues to make Ewd progress, ahead of the well-
defined shortwave evident on the water vapor imagery over WCntrl
TX. The heaviest rain has fallen just SW of the CWA over Cntrl and
upper SE TX, with two MCV`s evident just SW of LFK and near ACT
focusing the stronger convection and the heavier concentrations of
rainfall. While an isolated strong or severe storm can`t be ruled
out this morning mainly along the instability axis of SE TX into
WCntrl LA, the threat for locally heavy rainfall and localized
flooding will be the greatest concern mainly along and S of the
I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA before diminishing from W to E later
this morning through the afternoon with the departure of this
trough. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with isolated
higher amounts are possible through the afternoon, before the
convection becomes more isolated/widely scattered later in the
day.

Attm, will allow the Flood Watch to expire at 00Z this
evening, although there is some hint amongst the progs with
additional convection development late this afternoon/evening
along the Red River of N TX/Srn OK, as well as farther NNE along a
weak sfc front that will shift SE into SE OK/portions of SW AR
late tonight. There is reasonable agreement amongst the progs that
a subtle shortwave trough embedded in the SW flow will develop in
VC of the Red River Valley late this afternoon, ahead of
amplifying trough that will lift NE into the Nrn Plains/Upper
Midwest. This attendant forcing will help to amplify convection
to our NW, before it slides SE into portions of the area after
midnight. Given the uncertainties with the extent and associated
QPF with this convection, do not have enough confidence yet to
extend or expand the Flood Watch through tonight, and thus will
allow the day shift to review the latest model data and extend it
if needed in the afternoon forecast package.

Convection should become more numerous across much of the area
Friday with this trough passage, before a lull in the convection
occurs Friday night. Near to below normal temps due to the rain
cooled air is expected through the short term.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the upcoming
weekend, as the flow aloft remains SW beneath the Nrn Plains
troughing, before being replaced with the ahead of the next
upstream troughing over the Great Basin. The lead perturbation is
progged to traverse the area Saturday, with diurnal heating
contributing to scattered convection development during the day,
with a second perturbation in wake of the first one again focusing
at least scattered convection over the region. Should start to see
a more definitive warming trend commencing Monday, although the
influence of the ejecting Cntrl Rockies trough may still yield the
potential for isolated to scattered convection over the area.
Drier air should begin to mix down as the deep lyr flow becomes
more SW Tuesday, which should result in isolated convection (at
best) and even hotter conditions as we move through the latter
portions of the extended. In fact, there is enough consensus of
near 90 degree temps over Deep E TX/N LA Tuesday, becoming more
widespread Wednesday/Thursday. Resultant heat indices should range
from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees for mid and late week.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, MVFR should improve to VFR during the
rest of today. We will reload with the next nocturnal push after
midnight. Models vary a bit on timing and coverage, but another
round of TS will likely affect some if not all of our sites again
under this W/SW flow aloft. Otherwise, lots of moisture, light
wind with BR/FG big players in the morning rain or not. So expect
VFR crashing by midnight with IFR/MVFR cigs and vsby. This Spring
pattern will linger through the weekend with more TS activity./24/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  70  81  68 / 100  50  70  10
MLU  78  68  79  65 /  90  50  80  20
DEQ  76  64  81  64 /  90  50  50  20
TXK  75  66  80  66 /  90  50  60  20
ELD  75  66  79  64 /  70  60  70  20
TYR  80  68  82  68 / 100  40  50  10
GGG  79  67  81  67 / 100  50  60  10
LFK  78  68  82  68 / 100  50  70  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ136>138-149>153-
     165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...24