468
FXUS64 KSJT 300835
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
335 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The main concern for today and tonight will be the potential for
isolated strong to severe storms in our western and northern
counties. We will have some low clouds this morning across much of
the area, especially south of Interstate 20. These low clouds
will scatter out of area by around noon. Later this afternoon, as
temperatures warm, CAPE values will climb into the 2000 J/kg range
by mid afternoon, while convergence increases along the dryline
to our west. Coverage is expected to be fairly isolated as we will
have very limited upper level support underneath broad low
amplitude ridging. With the amount of instability combined with
deep layer shear values in the 30 to 40 knot range, any storms
that can develop will have the potential to become strong to
severe, with the main hazards being large hail and damaging winds.
If any storms can get going, expect them to develop during the
late afternoon hours, and last through late evening. Otherwise,
highs today will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Winds will be
southerly and gusty, and lows tonight should be in the mid 60s to
around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

An active pattern is setting up for the long-term duration of the
forecast. A strong upper low well to our north will put us in
relatively weak southwest flow aloft for the rest of the work week
with our area on the northern fringe of the southern stream jet.
Wednesday afternoon and evening looks to be our best chance of
seeing some potentially strong to severe storms. A surface low is
expected to deepen in the southeastern Colorado region with a
dryline extending south into West Texas. Ample daytime heating in
the warm sector (highs in the mid 80s to low 90s) and continued
modest southerly flow bringing increased moisture into the area
will yield significant instability on the order of 2000+ J/kg of
MLCAPE across our CWA. The main limiting factor will be weak shear
(20-30 kts) across the area. A weak upper level shortwave is
progged to eject northeastward out of Mexico during the late
afternoon which would likely kick-start development along the
dryline. Initial development off of the dryline is expected to be
supercellular and will pose the greatest threat for all hazards,
especially large hail. With pWats right around 1 inch, the storms
will also likely be efficient rainfall producers leading to a
potential for flash flooding concerns, primarily in areas that
have already seen ample rainfall over the last week or so. The
lack of shear should allow storms to grow upscale rather quickly
into a more linear feature as noted by most of the 00Z HREF
members. This line would make its way through the area overnight
with the significant severe threat likely decreasing as one moves
east. Though it should be noted that the threat for damaging winds
and marginally severe hail will remain through the duration of
the line.

We`ll see chances for storms yet again on Thursday. As a cold
front starts to sag south into the Red River region, we could see
some warm sector development again, though the dryline should be
much further east, nearly bisecting our CWA north to south.
Instability will be weaker from the previous day and shear will
still be hard to come by. The most likely area for development
will be across our eastern counties where the much better moisture
will reside. As we will still be under weak southwest flow aloft,
another weak shortwave may pass overhead aiding in some more
development though this aspect remains more uncertain.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer across western portions of
the area where southwesterly flow and a strengthening 850 mb
thermal ridge to our west will allow highs to climb into the low
to mid 90s. Further east, more ample moisture will hold highs in
the mid to upper 80s.

The cold front will make its way into our area early on Friday,
helping to cool temperatures areawide into the 80s. However, there
continues to be significant uncertainty regarding the placement
of this front. The general consensus is that it is expected to
stall out but the location of that remains rather nebulous at this
time. It is expected to stick around the central Texas region for
much of the weekend. This combined with the continued weak
southwest flow aloft will keep rain chances in play through
Sunday. Specifics are hard to come by at this point but a wetter
and "cooler" pattern is expected for the weekend with temperatures
generally in the low to mid 80s.

Conditions look to dry out by Monday but for how long remains
uncertain given the significant differences in the upper level
pattern with the long-range models. What we do know is that
temperatures will return to well above normal with highs in the
90s. Temperatures in the upper 90s will even be possible for areas
south of the Big Country by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Currently, all sites have VFR conditions, but MVFR ceilings can be
seen moving northwest into the area on satellite imagery. Expect
MVFR ceilings at our southern sites between 09Z and 11Z this
morning, remaining through late morning. KSOA has the best shot at
seeing IFR CIGs, so have a short TEMPO group there for that
possibility. Winds will be out of the south to southeast and gusty
at times, especially from late morning through Tuesday afternoon.
Otherwise, isolated to scattered TSRA are possible Tuesday
evening, but confidence is not high enough in these storms
occurring or their location to include a mention in this set of
TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  67  87  65 /  10  20  30  60
San Angelo  93  68  89  66 /   0  10  30  50
Junction    92  69  88  67 /   0   0  30  60
Brownwood   87  68  84  66 /   0  10  30  70
Sweetwater  91  67  87  66 /  20  20  30  50
Ozona       89  68  84  66 /   0  10  30  40
Brady       88  69  85  67 /   0  10  30  70

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...20