Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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581 FXUS63 KTOP 011119 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 619 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clouds clearing this afternoon with a dry day expected. Storm/rain chances move in later this evening and overnight. - Active pattern continues Sunday and through Wednesday with rain/storm chances daily. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Early this morning, mid-level water vapor imagery shows a slow- moving shortwave that has pushed into Missouri with associated rain and storms as mid-level subsidence builds in behind the wave in eastern Kansas. Low-level moisture across eastern Kansas has not moved much and has remained trapped below the sinking mid-level air leading to a spreading deck of stratus and patchy, dense fog. Over the next several hours, areas that can clear out stratus could continue to see patchy dense fog development as Td depressions hover around a degree or two across the CWA. Will continue to monitor the need for a dense fog advisory if fog can become widespread, but at this time, the boundary layer remains just mixed enough for low stratus. Over the course of the day, the upper low will continue to advect east of the area, ushering in a brief period of dry weather across the area. Clouds will scatter out by the mid to late afternoon, creating a nice afternoon with temperatures reaching the low 80s. This will be rather short lived as vorticity maximums ejecting off the Rockies spark another round of convection in western Kansas. This will move east late this evening and overnight into Sunday morning. A few storms within a line of convection could be strong to severe as they approach central and north-central Kansas with parameters capable of sustaining strong updrafts. That said, as convection develops a well-balanced cold pool, the main axis of QPF should begin follow the main instability gradient orientated from central KS towards southeast KS, keeping much of the area clear of storms. CAMs and other medium range guidance has come into more agreement with this solution. Some scattered convection could continue during the day Sunday given weak perturbations passing over the central Plains, but will be very dependent on how worked over the atmosphere is from the previous morning`s convection. Will need to watch for any mesoscale boundaries that get laid out during the day Sunday for a better idea on PoPs. Confidence in the coverage of storms Sunday afternoon is not high with weak capping in place, but with copious amounts of instability and sufficient shear, if a storm can get going, it will likely become strong to severe quick. By Sunday evening, another wave pushing out of the Rockies will again increase PoPs over the area. Better forcing and shear remain north of the forecast area, but a few storms moving into the area later Sunday evening and overnight could be strong to severe. It is important to keep in mind that with the set up over the next several days, each wave will have some impact on the next one so predictability is on the low end with finer details. Long range guidance has continued to remain consistent in bringing a more substantial wave across the northern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday that also has the potential to impact the area with storms. Tuesday will see strong low-level moisture advection from an open Gulf, pushing upper 60 and possibly low 70 degree Tds into eastern KS. As for lift, upper level support will be best nearest to the main upper low in the Dakotas, but should sweep a cold front across the area that will help to increase PoPs across the area again. There still is some discrepancies with how far south sufficient forcing and shear will get. If the best forcing remains further north then rain and few storms will be the main show along the frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall will also be a potential threat given the amount of moisture in place. All of this will continue to be monitored over the coming days for impactful changes. Beyond Tuesday/Wednesday`s system, cluster analysis continues to hit on a large ridge setting up over the western CONUS, extending into the central Plains. This should usher in some drier and warm weather by mid to late next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 IFR to low-end MVFR stratus hang around the TAF sites currently with patchy, dense fog forming in areas where stratus has become scattered. This will remain the trend over the morning hours this morning before clearing and scattering out to VFR TAFs by 18z. Have Tempo groups in over the next few hours to account for the fog and sudden changes in cloud decks. For the remainder of the TAF, light winds and mostly clear skies will be expected outside of some high and mid clouds moving in overnight and into Sunday morning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...Griesemer