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000
FXUS64 KTSA 220800
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
300 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Cold start this morning with temperatures in the mid 30s across
portions of far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A
frost advisory remains in effect for northwest Arkansas until 8
this morning.

Gusty southwest winds will develop today as surface high shifts
east with tightening pressure gradient. Limited moisture return
initially will create at least limited fire weather concerns with
any remaining dormant grasses, mainly across Osage county. Afternoon
RH values are expected to fall into the 30-35 percent range in
this area, but will likely remain above critical levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Warming trend will continue on Tuesday ahead of next cold front,
which is forecast to move into the region Tuesday afternoon/eve.
A few showers will be possible along boundary across NE OK/NW AR,
including a few scattered thunderstorms Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as boundary stalls near the I-40 corridor.

An active spring weather pattern is expected late week through
the weekend with several rounds of showers/thunderstorms likely,
including severe weather.

Low level moisture will continue to lift north Wednesday into
Wednesday night with elevated showers/thunderstorms likely developing
across eastern Oklahoma in convergent zone of low level jet axis.
A few of these storms could be strong to marginally severe late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning with hail the primary
threat.

Strong upper low is progged to lift northeast into the central
Plains on Friday with widespread showers/thunderstorms likely
during the day. Instability/shear profiles suggest the likelihood
for severe weather, however the timing and evolution will need to
be better resolved to determine if a more significant/widespread
severe weather event is likely. Specific threats will continue to
be refined over the next several days as additional data becomes
available.

Another vigorous upper low will move out of the desert Southwest
over the weekend with the potential for another round of severe
weather/heavier rainfall. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Mostly clear skies and light winds will continue tonight as
surface high pressure slides through the CWA and exits Monday
morning. Southerly winds return Monday and become gusty with the
strongest gusts expected over Northeast Oklahoma Monday afternoon.
Winds are forecast to weaken some Monday evening...while winds
aloft remain gusty. Thus...will carry low level wind shear Monday
evening for all CWA TAF sites. VFR conditions should prevail
through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  54  79  53 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   71  49  79  57 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   70  53  78  59 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   72  51  77  48 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   69  49  77  51 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   69  51  76  50 /   0   0  20  20
MKO   69  52  77  56 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   69  52  74  49 /   0   0  20  10
F10   69  53  78  56 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   67  49  74  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...20