069
FXUS64 KTSA 300857
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
357 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A warm and more humid day is on tap today as breezy southerly
winds return, with afternoon high temperatures warming well into
the 80s. There will be a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm in
the far northwest part of the forecast area towards evening as a
weak frontal boundary approaches from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Tonight will mark the start of an extended period of unsettled
weather. The aforementioned frontal boundary will sag south to
near the Oklahoma/Kansas border and will be the focus for shower
and thunderstorm activity overnight. Locally heavy rainfall will
be possible as storms train over the same areas, but with
uncertainty on just which side of the border the heaviest rainfall
will set up, will not issue a flood watch at this time.

The frontal boundary will lift back north of the area Wednesday
morning with convection waning at that time. Convection will
likely fire to the west Wednesday afternoon along a dry line, with
that convection potentially affecting our area overnight Wednesday
night. At this point, it appears the southern part of the forecast
area may see the greatest chance for rainfall at that time.

Convective coverage will likely be greatest Thursday into
Thursday night as a cold front moves into and through the area.
Nevertheless, the categorical pops shown by the NBM seem
excessive for a day 3 convective event, especially considering
potential effects from prior rounds of convection. Thus, have
backed off some from those pops Thursday and Thursday evening.

The cold front looks to stall near the Red River early Friday and
will then meander around in our vicinity through the weekend,
which will continue the chances of showers and storms. A stronger
storm system may affect the area early next week, continuing
shower and storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Skies will be clear and winds will be light through Tuesday
morning. During the day Tuesday, southerly winds will strengthen
and become a bit gusty during the afternoon (15-25 kts). Breezy
conditions will persist into the evening, though speeds may
diminish slightly.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected near or just north of KBVO
between 3-6Z Tuesday evening, with a 30% chance of impacting the
terminal. The main impacts would be strong gusty winds, heavy
rain, and lightning. There is a 10-20% chance the gusty outflow
winds from any storms could impact KTUL or KRVS during this same
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  63  84  67 /   0  50  40  40
FSM   87  62  87  67 /   0   0  20  30
MLC   85  64  84  67 /   0  10  30  50
BVO   85  61  83  65 /  10  80  40  50
FYV   84  60  83  64 /   0  10  20  30
BYV   84  60  84  66 /   0  20  20  20
MKO   85  62  84  66 /   0  20  30  40
MIO   84  60  83  66 /  10  70  30  40
F10   84  63  83  66 /   0  30  30  50
HHW   83  63  83  65 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06