Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
900 FXUS65 KVEF 032020 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 120 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A potent storm system dropping down from the Pacific Northwest will move across the region Saturday and Sunday bringing widespread strong winds and much cooler temperatures. High elevation snow in the southern Sierra Saturday will spread across parts of southern Nevada Saturday night and Sunday leading to a dusting of snow in the mountains. Improving conditions are expected Monday though temperatures will stay below a little below normal much of the week. && .SHORT TERM...Through Sunday night. Tranquil weather will continue through tonight then winds will increase significantly Saturday morning through the afternoon as a cold upper low digs over northern California/northwest Nevada. This system could be be seen on recent satellite loops off the Pacific Northwest Coast and looks vigorous with a clear cold core surrounded by a substantial moisture plume rounding its base. Model ensembles are in good agreement at tracking the center of the closed low across northern/central Nevada Saturday night and Sunday before opening it up as it pulls away to the Rockies Sunday night. This will place the base of the low and the area of strongest winds directly over our region. The main impact for our region will be widespread strong to high winds. The High Wind Watch was upgraded to a High Wind Warning for Inyo, Nye, Esmeralda and western Clark counties...including the Spring Mountains/Red Rock Canyon. The latest high res model cross sections indicate the potential for at least 60 mph downslope winds in the Owens Valley and Saturday evening between 00z and 06Z, and in the east facing slopes of the Spring Mountains between 06Z and 15Z Sunday. Gusts near the peaks of 70-80 mph are indicated. Wind Advisories were issued for the rest of Clark, Lincoln, Mohave and San Bernardino counties where gusts of 40- 55 mph will be common. Winds will decrease late Sunday afternoon and evening on the back side of the exiting trough. Precipitation will begin in the southern Sierra Saturday afternoon then spread across central and southern Nevada Saturday night and Sunday. Up to 2" of snow is forecast for Aspendell, and up to 12" near the Sierra crest above 10000 feet. Snow levels are forecast to drop to near 5000 feet across central and southern Nevada by Sunday morning when probabilities for precipitation range from 30-60% between the Spring Mountains and Rachel and Pioche. 1-2" of snow will be possible for the mountains of northern Lincoln County. 1" of snow or less can be expected for upper Kyle and Lee Canyons in the Spring Mountains and only a dusting for Rachel and Pioche. Temperatures will start to cool across the northern areas on Saturday with little change over the Mojave Desert region. Highs then drop 15-20 degrees areawide on Cinco de Mayo. This will be exceptionally cool for early May. In fact, the forecast high of 67 for Las Vegas Sunday is only two degrees warmer than our low maximum record of 65 set on May 5, 1973. .LONG TERM....Monday through Thursday. As the weekend system moves out, our area will be left under mostly zonal flow with a touch of a NW component. This pattern looks to linger through most, if not all, of the work week as persistent troughing remains just to our north. At the surface, this results in breezy afternoons with highs roughly 3-8 degrees below normal across the area. We`ll remain dry as the troughing to our north has very little moisture to work with. PoPs stay below 10% through Thursday. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwest winds of 10-15kts are expected to develop again this afternoon and continue into the early evening. Winds should fall below 10kts by mid-evening and remain less than 10kts through 15Z Saturday morning. After that, increasing southwest winds are forecast, with speeds increasing to above 20kts by late morning. Winds will continue to increase Saturday afternoon and evening, with a greater than 60% chance of gusts in excess of 45kts developing by tomorrow evening and continuing into Sunday morning. Winds will gradually decrease Sunday, but gusts over 30kts will remain likely through at least 00Z Monday. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF periods, although an increase in clouds AOA 15kft AGL is expected tomorrow afternoon and evening. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Las Vegas area TAF sites will follow similar trends to KLAS, with gusts over 30kts developing by early Saturday afternoon. KBIH will light northerly winds of less than 12kts through Saturday morning. Winds will increase after 16Z, with westerly winds over 35kts possible at KBIH after 20Z, and gusts over 50kts will be possible along the eastern slopes of the Sierra late Saturday afternoon into evening. Westerly winds will continue at KDAG with gusts over 30kts likely by Saturday morning, increasing to greater than 40kts by Saturday afternoon. In the CRV, light southerly winds will persist into tonight before increasing Saturday morning. Gusts over 30kts are likely at KEED and KIFP after 18Z tomorrow. VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the TAF period, although an increase in clouds AOA 12kft AGL is expected tomorrow afternoon and evening at KBIH and Vegas area sites. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adair LONG TERM...Woods AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter