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000
FXUS62 KCHS 262348
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
748 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through much of next week. A weak
cold front could approach late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: Aloft, the upper ridge axis will continue to
shift eastward and should be aligned up the Eastern Seaboard by
sunrise. At the surface, high pressure centered near the New
England coast will remain the primary feature, with some hints
of a coastal trough just offshore. The overnight is expected to
be dry, though we will periodically see offshore showers push
toward the coast and dissipate. These showers are developing
within narrow corridors of convergence noted in visible
satellite imagery, but they have consistently weakened once
they get within about 20 miles of shore. We do not expected to
see another round of fog and stratus again tonight. Overnight
lows should range in the upper 50s to low 60s in most areas,
though portions of the coast might not fall out of the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aloft, a strong mid-upper lvl ridge will remain directly over
the Southeast United States this weekend, then shift offshore
early next week. At the sfc, the local area will remain along
the southern periphery of cool high pressure centered to the
north while subtle coastal troughing takes place off the
Southeast Coast. The setup will favor onshore flow each day,
with sfc winds slowly veering during the weekend and resulting
in a slight warming trend as the ridge aloft starts to slide
offshore early next week. Latest guidance continues to suggest
low-lvl flow bringing sufficient moisture onshore in the form of
scattered/broken stratocumulus Saturday morning and potentially
Sunday morning. High temps should peak into the upper 70s/lower
80s away from the coast this weekend, then low-mid 80s away
from the beaches on Monday. Overnight lows should range in the
upper 50s inland to mid 60s near the beaches Saturday night and
Sunday night. However, lows could be dip into the mid 50s well
inland Sunday night due to lighter winds and clear skies leading
to more favorable radiational cooling conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly dry weather is expected through much of next week as a
zonal flow develops across the Southeast by mid-week while sfc
high pressure centered across the western Atlantic extends
across the Southeast. Warm air advection and ample sunshine will
yield a warming trend through the week, with high temps peaking
in the upper 80s to lower 90s mid to late week. The next chance
of rainfall should come with a front potentially reaching the
local area next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV
through 00z Sunday. We do not expect to see another round of fog
and stratus again tonight, though a few clouds in the 1-2 kft
range could push onshore at times. Winds will remain elevated
within the easterly flow through the evening, then diminish a
bit late. By mid morning, east to southeast winds will pick back
up with frequent gusts up to around 20 knots expected as early
as midday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: East winds around 15 kt will hold through the night.
Seas build under the persistent easterly flow and long fetch
building to 3-5 ft and possibly as high as 6 ft late overnight
and through much of the upcoming weekend in the Georgia offshore
leg out 20-60 NM. We will be hoisting a Small Craft Advisory
for that offshore leg starting at 4 AM early Saturday morning
and continuing through Sunday afternoon.

Saturday through Tuesday: High pressure centered well north of
the region will favor a long east-northeast fetch across local
waters this weekend, and support seas building up to 6-7 ft
across offshore Georgia waters, where a Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect until late Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, marine
conditions remain fairly quiet across remaining coastal waters
with east-northeast winds peaking near 15-20 kt on Saturday
slowly veering to south-southeast during the weekend and
weakening to 10-15 kt or less early next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate onshore winds will continue through the
weekend, while approximately 3 ft waves every 6-7 seconds reach
the beaches. The local rip current calculator indicates a
Moderate Risk of rip currents along all beaches Saturday, then
lingering along the Georgia beaches Sunday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 6 PM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...Adam/DPB