Area Forecast Discussion
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861
FXUS64 KEPZ 230843
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
243 AM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and mild weather across the Borderland today as high pressure
aloft builds over the region. This will bring warmer and drier
conditions to the region with a slackening of the winds. Backdoor
cold fronts will push in from the east on Tuesday night and again
on Thursday night. Both of these will drop temperatures and bring
a bit of moisture and gusty east winds. Thursday and Friday appear
to have enough moisture and instability to provide the region with
some chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Early week looks benign as a broad and flat ridge of high pressure
builds aloft over the Southwestern U.S. This will keep the winds
down, dry the region, and allow for warming to above seasonal
norms for Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday night the first of two backdoor cold fronts arrives from
the Plains. It appears to barrel in overnight, giving the west
slopes and gaps, and eastern zones strong winds. It does usher in
some moisture but it appears limited and shallow. Thus
precipitation chances are quite weak with this first boundary. It
does however bring in some cooler air with afternoon high temps
looking to be about 15 degrees cooler Wednesday then Tuesday. We
will also see an increase in clouds. A second backdoor front
pushes in Thursday night. Thursday will be warmer prefrontal,
Friday will cool again. The added moisture from the first front
will still be in place, and this second front will bolster that
with another advection of moisture. PWs will increase from .40"
to .80" and dewpoints will increase from the 30s to the 40s. Thus
Thursday could see slight chances for showers and storms, but
Friday and Saturday appears to be the better days for
precipitation as a Pacific low pressure system approaches and
passes north, positioning the upper jet and associated dynamics
over the region. Thus we have slight chance/chance for
Thunderstorms in for these days.

Sunday the trough passes and slightly breezy southwest flow
returns. There will be a shove of the moisture to the east for
some drying, but it doesn`t look like a clean and sharp scour out.
Thus we could see some lingering storm activity over areas east
of the Rio Grande.

Monday looks to give the region a bit more drier air as the come
under stronger SW flow ahead of another deep Pacific low coming
ashore over SCAL.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/12Z-24/12Z...
Fair and mild weather today. Skies generally sunny...SKC-FEW250.
VSBY unrestricted. Winds 140-180 3-5KTS thru 18Z...then 210-230
5-10kts.


$$

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fair and mild conditions today, and again Tuesday, as a broad and
flat ridge of high pressure builds across the southwestern U.S.
This means sunny skies, dry conditions, and light winds.
Temperatures will rise today and Tuesday, and RH will drop.
A strong backdoor front will push in from the east Tuesday night.
Gusty east winds will bring in cooler and more moist air.
Temperatures will be 15 degrees cooler on Wednesday, with much
higher RH. There will be a second backdoor front push in from the
east late Thursday. This one looks to bring more moisture and
better chances for showers and thunderstorms to the region for
Thursday and Friday. Despite a bit of strong east wind with the
frontal passages, and maybe some outflow winds with storms, there
are no strong spring wind events expected for the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 87  60  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           84  57  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              85  55  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              83  55  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              63  45  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   85  56  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             79  49  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  85  51  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               85  51  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      85  59  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               86  51  91  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            89  57  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              82  56  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  88  54  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            86  56  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          84  60  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           85  53  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   88  52  91  51 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                86  54  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               84  58  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 71  49  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               71  46  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                69  44  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 78  43  81  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               83  53  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               85  53  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            79  38  80  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  81  47  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   84  42  85  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              81  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 81  48  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  86  52  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 86  51  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          86  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              82  52  81  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14-Bird



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