Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 232320
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
620 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

A shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies early this afternoon is
progged to dig south and east into the Central Plains states on
Tuesday. Showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two will be
possible in the wake of a cold front progged to sweep across the
area during the day on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures will
be challenging on Tuesday with values likely falling in the wake of
the front although highs will climb into the mid 70s across much of
southeast KS while portions of central Kansas struggle to reach 60.

A few showers may linger early on Wed with below normal temperatures
returning to the area. High temperatures are expected to be 10-15
degrees below normal on Wed with most locations remaining in the mid
and upper 50s. Low level southwest winds may help keep temperatures
from bottoming out but some frost in low-lying areas may be possible
early Thu morning.

Thu...shortwave ridging will return on Thursday ahead of the next
progressive shortwave trough. This will allow temperatures to return
to more seasonable values with highs near 70. Maintained low pops
late Thu-Thu night as the fast moving shortwave trough sweeps across
the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Temperatures will rebound quickly on Fri with moderating
temperatures and dry weather conditions anticipated through the
weekend. High temperatures over the weekend and into early next
week may approach 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR conditions are likely to prevail at KHUT, KICT, and KCNU
throughout the 06Z forecast period. However, ceilings will begin
to come down somewhat during the early afternoon on Tuesday as
the next system approaches the area from the northwest. In
central Kansas (KRSL, KGBD, and KSLN), expect that rain showers in
the wake of a cold front forecast to move through the region will
begin sometime Tuesday morning. Thus, ceilings at central Kansas
sites will begin as VFR but lower to MVFR levels during the day
Tuesday. Following the frontal passage, east/northeast winds will
flip to a more northwesterly direction and become more breezy as
the front moves through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Fire weather concerns will remain low across the area for the
upcoming week due to recent rainfall, higher relative humidities and
lighter winds. Rising temperatures and breezy southerly winds will
result in a very high grassland fire danger across much of central
and south central Kansas on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  71  44  58 /   0  20  60  30
Hutchinson      47  67  42  57 /   0  40  60  30
Newton          47  69  43  56 /   0  30  60  30
ElDorado        48  71  45  58 /   0  20  60  30
Winfield-KWLD   47  73  46  59 /   0  10  70  40
Russell         45  56  39  57 /  10  80  40  30
Great Bend      46  58  39  56 /  10  70  50  20
Salina          45  66  43  57 /   0  70  60  30
McPherson       46  66  42  56 /   0  50  60  30
Coffeyville     46  76  49  61 /   0   0  50  40
Chanute         46  74  48  60 /   0  10  50  40
Iola            45  73  48  59 /   0  10  50  40
Parsons-KPPF    46  75  49  61 /   0   0  50  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...TAV
FIRE WEATHER...MWM



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