448
FXUS64 KJAN 110301 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1001 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

No adjustments were needed to the forecast tonight. High pressure
at the surface and ridging aloft to our west are providing mostly
clear skies, though some mid to upper cloud deck has begun to
spread in from the southwest. Even where clouds are thin, the
drier air over the region is allowing for a spectacular rare view
of the Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights) driven by a "G5 Extreme"
category geomagnetic storm. Reports have come in even as far south
as the Gulf Coast tonight. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Tonight through Sunday: Dry weather is expected through the period.
Mid afternoon surface analysis had the cold front nearly along the
Gulf coast with a >1020mb centered over the northern Plains. This
surface high will build into our CWA tonight and Saturday before
shifting east of Mississippi Saturday night. With continued
northwest flow aloft tonight and the surface high moving in,
temperatures are expected to bottom out cooler than normal and in the
50s at most locations. As the surface high becomes centered over our
CWA Saturday and a decent amount of insolation occurs, temperatures
will top out close to normal in the lower 80s. Moisture will slowly
increase Saturday night and Sunday as the surface high shifts east
and results in return flow. By Sunday morning a closed low will be
centered just east of the Four Corners region with induced shortwave
ridging aloft moving over our CWA. There will be an increase in
cloud cover from the southwest and the chance for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms will return to our southwest. This increase in
cloud cover and rain will hold afternoon highs slightly cooler than
normal in the 70s while the remainder of the CWA tops out near
normal. /22/

Sunday night through Friday: Rain chances will increase Sunday night
over the whole area as the closed low shifts east over the central
Plains and supports the development of a surface low over the
southern Plains. This surface low is expected to track north
becoming a nearly stacked low pressure system Monday. Although the
potential for severe weather looks low currently, subtle shortwaves
rounding the base of the closed low with help contribute to heavy
rain development across our CWA. Widespread rain is expected over
our CWA Monday and Monday night before tapering off from the
southwest Tuesday as the low pressure system shifts east over the
Ohio valley. Storm totals of two to four inches are possible between
Sunday night and Tuesday with the higher amounts expected across our
southern zones. Dry weather is expected Tuesday night through
Wednesday evening as shortwave ridging aloft and a surface ridge
from the north shift east across our region. After midnight
Wednesday night rain chances will increase from the southwest again
ahead of another approaching low pressure system. Models differ on
the evolution of this low pressure system but widespread rain is
expected across our CWA Thursday and Thursday night before tapering
off from the west Friday. Storm total amounts with this system may
add another one to three inches across our CWA; again with the
higher amounts across our southern zones. This amount of rain will
likely lead to minor river flooding but flash flooding is not
anticipated at this time. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 758 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
teh period, with winds prevailing out of the north at less than
10 kts. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       58  82  63  79 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      55  82  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     59  82  64  79 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   60  83  62  82 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       59  82  63  77 /   0   0   0  30
Greenville    59  83  65  81 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     57  82  63  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/NF