Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 262325
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
625 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with FEW/SCT cumulus
at 4000-5000 feet dissipating within the next 1-2 hours. Light
northerly winds will become calm/variable after 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite this afternoon showing clear skies across most
of the region with just maybe a few scattered clouds in the
northeastern portion of the CWA where there`s a bit of wrap around
from the departing low. Surface observations show the
aforementioned low located over northern MS/AL with a cold front
extending southward into the gulf. Cooler and drier air has
filtered in behind the front and as such are seeing temperatures
this afternoon ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s across the
region, though we might still gain a degree or two before sunset.
Drier air is also evident at the surface with dew points currently
around 5-10 degrees lower than around this time yesterday, as
well as in the mid-levels as water vapor imagery shows a much
drier air mass above us translating eastward around the base of
the departing trough. All in all it looks like the remainder of
the day should be pretty pleasant.

Winds overnight will become generally calm and temperatures will
dip into the 50s. Skies will start off generally clear but clouds
will likely increase as we get closer to morning ahead of another
shortwave set to swing through the region on Friday. This
shortwave will help drive a reinforcing front southward but
overall rain chances will remain low since precipitable water
values will only be around an inch or so and continued northerly
winds will yield little convergence along the frontal boundary.
Axis of the upper level trough will swing pretty much right over
the CWA with NAM digging it a little deeper than the GFS... In any
case it looks like a small bit of instability might be present in
the eastern CWA, which when combined with the aforementioned
factors might lead to a few isolated showers over Central
Louisiana into Acadiana in the afternoon and into the evening.

High pressure settles in overnight Friday into Saturday as an
upper level ridge pushes into the central plains. Weather looks
pleasant over the weekend with light winds, partly cloudy skies,
and high temps in the low 80s. By the start of the work week the
upper ridge and surface high slide east allowing southerly flow
and moisture to increase off of the gulf, but the next system and
stronger precipitation chances looks to hold off until the middle
to latter part of the week.

MARINE...
Near and offshore winds will remain around 5-10kts from the north
through tonight becoming more northwesterly on Friday behind a
reinforcing frontal boundary. High pressure builds in behind the
front for the weekend, with variable winds less than 10kts as the
surface high moves in and then pushes eastward. Overall seas 1-2
feet through the weekend with only a slight chance of a few
isolated showers Friday afternoon before the front passes. By the
end of the period high pressure slides eastward and pressure
gradient tightens leading in an increasingly southeasterly wind.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  50  77  51  81 /  10  20   0   0
LCH  54  78  56  81 /  10  10   0   0
LFT  55  77  56  81 /  10  20   0   0
BPT  55  77  56  79 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...26


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