Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 241436
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
736 AM PDT Thu May 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A drier air mass that has moved into the region will
limit shower and thunderstorm activity to northern Nevada today.
An approaching weather disturbance will bring gusty winds to
central Nevada Friday in addition to showers and thunderstorms
moving back into the state for the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Did a quick update to reflect increased chances for
precipitation, sky and weather 12z- 18z period today mainly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 314 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A drier air mass that has moved into the region will
limit shower and thunderstorm activity to Humboldt county and far
northern Nevada today. An approaching weather disturbance will
bring gusty winds to central Nevada Friday in addition to showers
and thunderstorms moving back into the state for the Memorial Day
weekend.

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. Considerably drier air
continues to move into central NV from the south and will work
its way farther north as the day progress. Isolated showers and tstms
on the fringes of the remaining moisture are possible across far
northern NV this afternoon but otherwise a dry day for most of the
state. A dynamic low pressure system will make its way into
central CA coast Friday. Favorable upper-level dynamics and
instability will exist across western NV including Humboldt
county Friday allowing showers and tstms to develop once again.
A pronounced west-to-east moisture gradient will exist Friday with
most of the convection staying west of Lander and Nye county.
Shear with this system still appears impressive with a good swath
of 40-50 knots across central NV, diminishing across northern NV.
Convection could start early Friday as a well mixed layer will be
present above 750mb. Strong to severe storms are possible in this
environment across Humboldt county Friday. Upper 70s to lower 80s
for highs today will moderate a bit Friday for the western part
of the CWA as cloud cover and moisture return to western NV. Lows
will generally be in the mid 40s.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Thursday.

Friday night - With impressive dynamics in place, nocturnal
convection should persist into the overnight hours, especially for
the western third of the CWA. A couple stronger elevated storms
may be possible into the late evening, with gusty winds and small
hail.

Saturday - Closed low slides eastward along the US Highway 6
corridor in northern Nye County. Deformation zone will be located
across central NV extending northward into northern NV. Axis of
instability around 1000 j/kg will be co-located. Flow aloft and
shear values will be more than enough to support strong
multicellular clusters across the majority of NV. A few supercells
will be possible across eastern NV Sat aftn, where enhanced shear
values remain overlapped with a modest unstable airmass.
Additionally, corfidi vectors also are calm to 5kts further west
west over SW/north-central Elko and northern Lander/Eureka
Counties, which indicate another chance for isolated flash
flooding in this aforementioned axis of enhanced ingredients. This
will need to be watched closely as we approach the weekend.

Sunday and Monday - Closed low is stubborn to move east of the
state with wrap around moisture resulting in showers and
thunderstorms. Each aftn will be capable of a few stronger storms,
but the best chance for any severe weather will be Fri/Sat. There
could be some impressive multi-day rainfall totals, especially
for areas that see repeat storms. The best chance for widespread
soaking rains will be mainly Elko County on Sunday and Monday.

By Tuesday through Thursday, a more zonal or weak trof pattern
takes hold across Nevada. Lingering moisture will be capable of
supporting aftn convection across the area, with yet a few more
stronger storms possible as flow aloft increases. Confidence
remains below average as model differences exist, but in better
agreement compared to last night.

AVIATION...Today will remain mostly dry, with the exception of
KWMC. A couple strong isolated/scattered showers and/or
thunderstorms will be possible during the aftn. Elsewhere, just
cumulus buildup and perhaps VCTS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

92/99



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