Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 210622
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
422 PM ChST Sat Apr 21 2018

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies, moderate to fresh trade winds, and isolated
showers are found across the Marianas this afternoon. Combined seas
range from 6 to 7 feet at the buoys.

&&

.Discussion...
Forecasts remain the same as dry season is back in session. Moderate
to fresh trades will slowly decrease as high pressure up north slides
eastward. Otherwise, except for a small increase in clouds around
Wednesday, little change is expected in our present pattern.

&&

.Marine...
The high risk of rip currents will extend into Sunday before east
swell drops enough late Sunday to reduce the risk to moderate.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
Fair weather is in place at Chuuk, Pohnpei and Majuro this afternoon.
An active weather pattern remains across much of the region. Visible
satellite imagery shows active deep convection along a near-
equatorial trough south of Chuuk and Pohnpei, showers near a weak
disturbance over Kosrae and an active band of trade wind convergence
north and northeast of Majuro to near the dateline. Showers near
the trough south of Chuuk and Pohnpei will keep to the south while
dry conditions remain in place at Pohnpei through tonight and Chuuk
through Sunday night. The disturbance near Kosrae remains nearly
stationary but is expected to head slowly west the next few days.
A wet pattern will remain over Kosrae a couple more days. Showers
could be heavy at times Sunday and Monday. Models show this
disturbance weakening as it head west with showers gradually
dissipating within an open-wave trough. Will keep a close watch on
this. Expect dry conditions at Majuro through Sunday. Showers will
reach Majuro early in the week as trade-wind convergence increases.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Trade winds were just enough to keep island convection off to the
southwest of Koror today. Dry weather is seen over Yap while isolated
showers are found near Koror. The drier weather at Yap will proceed
to Koror overnight. Went ahead and removed thunderstorms from the
Sunday forecast at Koror as moderate trades and a dry pattern will
persist. Expect a dry pattern for at least the first half of the
week at both locations.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for GUZ001>004.

Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Middlebrooke/M. Aydlett



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