119
FXUS65 KPUB 031748
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1148 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Plains today
  with one or two strong to severe storms possible, generally
  north and east of a line from La Junta to Kim.

- Critical Fire Weather conditions continue across the San Luis
  Valley today.

- Strong and gusty winds for much of the area Sunday and Monday.

- Critical fire weather conditions will likely return to
  portions of the area starting Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate west to
southwest flow aloft across the Rockies, with another short wave trough
translating through the faster flow across the Intermountain West at this
time. Regional radars and satellite imagery indicating mid and high level
clouds streaming across the Rockies, with a few waa showers lifting out
across the eastern I-70 Corridor into northern portions of Kiowa County
at this time.

Latest model data supports increasing southwest flow aloft through the
day today, as the embedded wave across the Intermountain West continues
into the Northern Rockies. This will lead to lee troughing developing
and deepening across the southeast Plains through the afternoon, with
breezy south to Southeast low level winds advecting low level moisture
into southeast Colorado, with dew pts in the mid 40s to lower 50s
supporting CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon, generally north and
east of a La Junta to Kim line. Bulk shears of 30-40kts will be present
across the southeast Plains this afternoon, and with steep lapse rates
and convergence along the expected advancing dry line, could see one
or two strong to severe storms producing strong outflow winds up to 60 mph
and half dollar sized hail across the southeast Plains this afternoon.
Latest HREF paintball data indicates a few helicity swaths developing
from 2 pm to 8 pm across the plains, with storms possibly congealing into
a large convective cluster associated with the passing waves cold front
pushing south across eastern Colorado through the evening.

West of the dryline, breezy west to southwest winds can be expected this
afternoon, with critical fire weather conditions expected across the San
Luis Valley into portions of the Southern I-25 Corridor, with current
fuel status supporting the Red Flag Warning for the San Luis Valley
from 11 AM to 8 PM. Passing cold front brings gusty northerly winds
of 25 to 45 mph across the plains this evening, with a low chance of
of an isolated shower across the Palmer Dvd and Raton Mesa into the
late evening. Clearing skies through the overnight hours could also
bring some patchy frost to areas along the Palmer Dvd early Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

Saturday...The area will be under weaker flow aloft as another
Pacific low system pushes onshore across northern CA. The frontal
passage Friday evening will swing surface winds around to an
easterly direction Sat morning, pushing remnant moisture back
towards the higher terrain. This will fuel afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms, with more activity expected across the
mts and immediate adjacent plains, and SPC has the entire forecast
area under a General Thunder area. Plan on high temps in the 60s for
most locations.

Sunday and Monday...Ensembles still indicate that the most likely
track of this next system will be across the Great Basin on Sunday,
then ejecting to the northeast across northern UT, WY and MT Sunday
night through Monday. The system strengthens considerably, and
reaches eastern MT by early Tue morning. This track is expected to
produce strong southerly winds across the forecast area on Sunday,
then strong west winds on Monday. Sunday looks like it will be the
warmest day of the extended period with the strong southerly flow,
and humidity levels are forecast to remain elevated enough that a
fire weather highlight should not be needed. However, on Monday the
strong westerly flow should force humidity levels downward, and
critical fire weather conditions will make a return. As for
precipitation chances, Sunday starts with some lingering isolated
showers near the Kansas border, but by the afternoon activity kicks
up across the higher terrain, with the best chances along the
Continental Divide where 2 to 4 inches of new snow for the peaks
will be possible. By Monday, with the westerly flow, the best
chances for any shower activity will be the central mts, spreading
to the Pikes Peak region and Palmer Divide. Look for highs on Sun in
the 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F
for the plains. On Mon, temps will only climb into the 50s for the
high valleys, and 60s to mid 70s for the plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The upper low will slowly cross ND on Tue,
pushing into MN late Wed. Strong westerly flow is expected to
continue across the forecast area both days, with isolated showers
mainly restricted to the central mts. Fire weather highlight are
anticipated for portions of the area both days, as temps warm into
the mid 50s to lower 60s for the high valleys, and mid 60s to near
80F for the plains.

Thursday...A shortwave rotating around the northern low will push a
cold front south into CO Wed evening, setting the stage for cooler
temps for the forecast area as well as isolated to scattered
convection chances returning to the eastern plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for KALS and KPUB, and mostly
for KCOS, throughout the forecast period. There will be some lower
decks moving in later which will reduce CIGs to MVFR criteria during
the morning hours from approximately 11 to 13Z. CIGs will should
remain elevated enough to be above MVFR criteria for KPUB from 13 to
15Z. FROPA will occur for KCOS around 01Z and KPUB around 02Z, which
will result in a windshift with gusty NE`ly winds thereafter, with
gusts close to 40 kts at both terminals. Winds will be synoptically
influenced at all terminals. There is very low confidence (less than
10 percent) of SHRA or possibly TSRA to be in the vicinity of KCOS
and KPUB right around the time of FROPA, although due to the lack of
confidence, this was left out of the TAF. -Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...STEWARD