Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FGUS71 KILN 151942

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
342 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...Slightly Above Normal Flood Risk Through The End of March...

Normal flood potential means at least some flooding is possible.
Above normal flood potential means more widespread flooding is
possible with some points possibly reaching moderate or major
flood levels.

This is a biweekly flood outlook issued by local NWS offices in
winter and early spring to summarize basin conditions and to
assess the potential for flooding. The outlooks are based on
current and forecast hydrometeorological conditions.

The factors considered when determining flood potential include
current streamflow and reservoir levels compared to normal for
the period, water equivalent in any snow pack, soil moisture
and expected precipitation.

Little to no snow cover across the region.

Streamflow was much near to slightly above normal.

There is no ice on area rivers.

Soil moisture per measurements from the Natural Resources
Conservations Service and modeled soil moisture for the region
was above normal for mid March.

While area reservoirs are continuing to be drawn down to winter
flood storage levels, several still remained high, somewhat
diminishing flood control capacity.

Several rounds of mostly light precipitation are expected over the
first week of the outlook period, with some mixed or freezing
precipitation included. The heaviest of these systems likely to
produce all rain pushes through the basin about March 20th as of
this writing. This system may result in swollen creeks and streams
with a chance of minor flooding.

In week 2 of the outlook period, the Climate Prediction Center is
projecting a possibility of below normal temperatures, with a
stronger signal of above normal precipitation.

Real time river information and forecasts for specific locations
along rivers across Central and Southern Ohio...Northern Kentucky
and Southeast Indiana can be found at


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