Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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FGUS62 KALR 291423
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
1000 AM EDT THU MAR 29 2018

...THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FROM SERFC UNLESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN APRIL...

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN
EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION. THE
FORECAST FOR NORMAL RIVER FLOODING INDICATES THAT THE MAGNITUDE AND
NUMBER OF EVENTS WILL BE TYPICAL.

OVERALL...A MIX OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA
AND NEARING THE END OF THE SOUTHEAST TRADITIONAL FLOOD SEASON...IT
LOOKS LIKE NORMAL CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE HEART OF THE SPRING
SEASON.

PAST PRECIPITATION...IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON SERFC
MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...RAINFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA HAS
BEEN NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE.  CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VIRGINIA HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL, WHILE WETERN VIRGINIA NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL.  NEAR NORNAL RAINFALL IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BELOW NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE.

 FOR 28-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS FOLLOW A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE
RAINFALL IN THE LAST MONTH.   MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA STREAMFLOWS AR
NEAR NORMAL WITH MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  IN
VIRGINIA...THERE`S A GRADIENT OF NORMAL IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE STATE AND

RESERVOIRS...MANY OF THE RESERVOIRS ARE CLOSE TO THEIR TARGET POOLS.
 THE SAVANNAH BASIN AT THE BORDER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ARE
CLOSE TO THEIR TARGET POOLS WITH THURMOND RESERVOIR, AT THE BOTTOM
OF THE SERIES OF RESERVOIRS, STILL ABOUT 2 TO 3 FEET BELOW THE GUIDE
CURVE FOR END OF MARCH.

SNOW PACK...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK IN VIRGINIA AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA THAT WILL HAVE ANY IMPACT ON SPRING
FLOODING.

SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES SHOW THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH CHANCE FOR
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA
...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN EACH WEEK DURING THE WINTER IS NEAR
NORMAL....DAY 6 AND 7 LOOK WET AND THE MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL
MODELS HINT AT ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE 2ND WEEK OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR WINTER INTO SPRING
...BASED ON THE CPC LONG LEAD OUTLOOK FOR APRIL THROUGH
JUNE...NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE SPRING.
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY MONTH.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC.  IN THE WATER SUPPLY
PULLDOWN MENU IS THE WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK.

HAMILL



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