Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FNUS73 KGRR 252232
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Gourdneck Prairie Rx...MI DNR
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
632 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1900 EDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Northwesterly wind gusts to 20 mph will subside
around 8PM, with winds then becoming very light or calm after 10PM.
Warmer temperatures and sunny skies are expected tomorrow, but
winds will be much lighter. Expect to see a light northwest wind
(under 5 mph) develop after sunrise, with a shift to the west in
the late afternoon (best guess is around 3PM) as the lake breeze
works inland. Winds aloft will be very light tomorrow, inhibiting
smoke transport.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Temperature.........55 at ignition...Min 33.
RH..................41 percent at 7 PM...Max 85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 11 mph at 7PM...otherwise
                    Northwest winds 4 to 7 mph until midnight
                    becoming light. Gusts to 20 mph until about 8PM.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3600-4100
                    ft AGL decreasing to 700-1200 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........North 7 to 16 mph shifting to the west 1 to 6
                    mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....400 /good/ at ignition. Min...0 /poor/.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........9      7      3      4      4      3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............55     49     43     39     36     34
RH..............41     52     65     76     82     82
20 ft wind......NW 11  NW 9   NW 7   N 4    NW 3   SW 3
20 ft wind gust.12
Mix hgt (ft)....2800   2500   300    BLW100 200    200
Haines index....3      4      5      4      4      4
Smoke Dispersal 400    200    0      0      0      0

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........Max 64.
RH..................Min 25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 10 mph around 3PM
                    (lake breeze).
Mixing height.......4100-4600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 1 to 2 mph shifting to the north 2 to 5
                    mph through early afternoon, then shifting to the
                    northwest 2 to 6 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....0-200 (poor to fair).
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Orow
Requested by...Lee Osterland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807867.0/GRR
.EMAIL Osterlandl@michigan.gov



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