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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

000
FNUS74 KMEG 251221
FWSMEG

Spot Forecast for Kelly Rx...Tennessee Division of Forestry
National Weather Service Memphis TN
721 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Minimum relative humidity will drop to near 30 percent this afternoon,
as light northeast winds prevail.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Dewpoint............43.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming northeast around
                    5 mph early in the afternoon becoming light.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).1100-4400 ft MSL.
Mixing height (m)...335-1341 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 8 mph.
Transport winds m/s.East 2 to 4 meters/second.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (900 knot-ft).
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........19  27  22  34  49  45  54  76  80  83
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10
Temp............51  56  61  64  67  70  71  72  72  71
Dewpoint........44  45  45  44  43  42  42  41  42  43
RH..............77  66  56  48  42  36  35  33  34  36
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   3   5   3   3   3   3   2
20 FT wind gust.8   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.4
Mx ht msl (kft).1.1 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.4
Mix hgt (km)....0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE
Transp wind spd.8   6   7   6   6   6   6   5   6   5
Trans wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE
Trans spd (m/s).4   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   3   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   1   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   2
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers overnight. Chance of rain showers
                    overnight. Slight chance of thunderstorms after
                    3 am.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 20 percent overnight,
                    then increasing to 30 percent overnight
                    increasing to 40 percent overnight increasing
                    to 50 percent decreasing to 40 percent after 3
                    am.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Dewpoint............47 increasing to 50 early in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east around 5 mph late in
                    the evening, then shifting to the southeast 5
                    to 7 mph overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).400-1600 ft MSL.
Mixing height (m)...122-488 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 10 mph shifting to the east 9 to
                    10 mph overnight.
Transport winds m/s.Northeast around 2 meters/second shifting to
                    the east around 4 meters/second late in the
                    evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (400 knot-ft).
Rainfall amount.....0.09 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........87  89  92  89  92  93  95  95  90  92  91  90
Weather cov.....                        SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                        SCH SCH
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  20  30  40  50  40  40
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  20  30  40  50  40  40
Temp............70  69  65  63  62  61  60  59  57  57  57  56
Dewpoint........45  47  47  48  47  47  47  48  49  49  49  50
RH..............41  45  52  58  58  60  62  67  75  75  75  80
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NE  NE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  E   SE
20 FT wind spd..2   3   3   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   7
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   6   8   7   7   8   8   10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Mx ht msl (kft).1.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Mix hgt (km)....0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.5   6   7   9   10  10  9   10  10  10  9   10
Trans wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Trans spd (m/s).2   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   0   0   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Slight
                    chance of rain showers in the morning.
CWR.................30 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Dewpoint............53 increasing to 58 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 12 mph with gusts to
                    around 18 mph shifting to the south with gusts
                    to around 18 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).500-4000 ft MSL.
Mixing height (m)...152-1219 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 16 mph shifting to the south 16
                    to 23 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.South 6 to 10 meters/second.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (700 knot-ft).
Rainfall amount.....0.02 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........90        71        59        64
Weather cov.....CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC     S CHC
CWR.............30        20        20        10
Chc of pcpn (%).30        20        20        10
Temp............57        62        73        79
Dewpoint........51        55        59        59
RH..............80        78        60        51
20 FT wind......SE 7G10   SE 9G14   S 12G17   S 12G18
Mix hgt (ft)....500       1000      2500      3800
Mx ht msl (ft)..500       1000      2500      3800
Mix hgt (m).....150       300       760       1160
Transport wind..E 10      S 17      S 17      S 22
Tran wind (m/s).E 4       S 8       S 8       S 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1         2         6         12
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

$$
Forecaster...Baker
Requested by...Burn Boss
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412424.0/MEG
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL James.edward.moore@tn.gov