Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 170403

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Mar 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.


A surface trough axis extends from 09N84W to 07N97W, where latest
scatterometer data indicates the Intertropical Convergence Zone
(ITCZ) begins and extends to 08N115W to 09N124W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate convection convection is within 60 nm N of
the axis between 94W and 96W, and also within 60 nm of the axis
between 130W and 134W.



A strong jet stream branch rounds the base of a broad deep layer
trough that is advancing eastward across the eastern portion of
the area. This jet stream is advecting abundant deep moisture
east-northeastward towards much of Baja California. Patches of
rain with embedded scattered scattered showers are being
transported east-northeastward to across Baja California. At the
surface, a cold front extends from a 1008 mb low over southern
California southwestward through 32N121W and to 29N125W to
near 27N135W. This front will weaken is at moves across the
remainder of the northeast portion of the area and northern Baja
California by this evening. Low pres over the far northern part
of the Gulf of California will bring strong southwest to west
winds to the waters N of 29N through early this afternoon, then
diminish to mainly moderate winds soon afterwards. High pres
ridging over these waters will slide eastward through Mon in
response to a strong cold front that moves across the
northwestern part of the area.

Pulses of strong winds are expected off Los Cabos early Sun, and
off Cabo Corrientes by early Mon.


Over Gulf of Papagayo, high pressure ridging over the Caribbean
will bring fresh to strong NE to E winds through this morning and
again tonight and Sun night before diminishing to fresh winds.

Over the Gulf of Panama, fresh to strong northerly winds, with
seas of 5 to 7 ft will diminish to fresh winds this afternoon.
Seas will subside to 4 to 6 ft this afternoon.

Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft to
persist into early next week.


Residual NW swell to 8 ft will persist south of 10N west of
about 136W through this evening, then decay below 8 ft. The
gradient associated with weak high pres over the area will
maintain gentle to moderate trades across the deep tropics along
with seas of 5 to 7 ft through Mon.

Farther S over the deep tropics, a broad upper trough in
combination with trade wind convergence is producing scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection within 30 nm of line from
11N111W to 10.5N115W. A stronger cold front will approach the far
NW corner of the area tonight. By early on Sun morning low pres
will ride northeastward along the front to just N of the area
near 31N139W, with the cold front extending from it southwestward
to just west of the area. This cold front will be preceded by
strong to near gale force southerly winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft
as it reaches to near 32N136W to 27N137w and to beyond 26N140W by
Sun night.

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