049
FXUS65 KABQ 031744 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1144 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

Warmer conditions will prevail today, with a few late day strong
to severe storms closer to the Texas border. A backdoor front will
move southwest across the area Friday night through Saturday,
bringing some cooling and gusty east canyon winds into the Rio
Grande Valley. The front may trigger storms across north central
and eastern NM Saturday, but storms across southeast NM may become
severe. A strong disturbance will approach Sunday and move over
Monday, bringing very windy conditions with areas of blowing dust
both days. Stronger westerly winds will persist Tuesday in the
wake of the disturbance, but will trend down by Wednesday. A cold
front may move south across the state toward the end of next week,
bringing chances for showers and storms to eastern NM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

A return flow of low level moisture has spread low clouds across
much of the east central and northeast plains and highlands this
morning.  These will retreat gradually from the west from mid
morning through the early afternoon.  However, an upper level trough
passing eastward over the northern and central Rockies will work
with this moisture, and high temperatures a few to around 8 degrees
above 1991-2020 averages, to spark scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms across northeast and east central areas this afternoon
and evening. A few strong to severe cells will be possible near the
eastern border of the forecast area this afternoon. In addition,
some garden variety thunderstorms will probably get started as far
west as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

Tonight, a moist backdoor front pushing south and southwestward
through the eastern plains will probably trigger isolated additional
storms. And, there will probably be areas of low clouds again across
the east tonight into early Saturday morning. Around sunrise
Saturday, the backdoor front is forecast to push through gaps in the
central mountain chain with a gusty east wind below canyons opening
into the Rio Grande and upper Tularosa Valleys from Santa Fe
southward. Gusts could peak around 40 mph in Santa Fe and up to 50
mph below Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque early Saturday morning.

A disturbance crossing the forecast area from the southwest will
interact with all the moisture to produce scattered to isolated
showers and thunderstorms across north central, east central and
southeast areas on Saturday afternoon, as well as mostly dry and
gusty storms over the continental divide region of northwest NM.
Shear and instability look strong enough for a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms over southern Roosevelt and eastern Chaves Counties,
even with high temperatures a few to around 11 degrees below 30-year
averages over the eastern half of the forecast area. Highs near to
around 5 degrees above the averages are forecast central and west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

Any remaining convection Saturday evening will follow a normal
diurnal downturn and/or move east off into west TX. Low
stratus/fog development is likely late Saturday night into Sunday
morning, mainly along/east of the central mountain chain, as a
thin near-surface moisture layer holds over the area. A potent
upper level low will move east from the Great Basin toward the
central/southern Rockies Sunday through Monday, spreading very
strong winds aloft over the region. The timing of the approach
may allow for a few storms to take off near the TX/OK borders
Sunday afternoon after a dryline sharpens. However, near-surface
moisture depth may be insufficient to fuel deeper convection. Will
carry a slight chance mention of storms across the eastern plains
for Sunday afternoon and any storms that do develop will likely
become severe given impressive 0-6km bulk shear and strong dryline
forcing. Deep mixing of stronger winds aloft on Sunday will bring
very windy conditions to much of the area, with blowing dust
likely by afternoon across central and western NM where winds are
forecast to reach at least advisory criteria. Strong westerly flow
will prevail Monday behind the upper level trough/low ejecting
out of the central/southern Rockies, with more areas of blowing
dust. Winds are currently forecast to reach advisory criteria on
Monday, but the winds aloft are strong enough to produce high wind
gusts along and immediately east of the central mountain chain
and near the CO border from Raton to near Clayton. Strong westerly
flow and windy to very windy conditions will persist Tuesday as
broad cyclonic flow prevails across the region. Winds will
finally begin to trend down Wednesday and be much less by Thursday
as a cold front moves southwest across the area. The front may
interact with weak troughing over the region to produce a round of
showers and storms late Thursday into early next Friday, mainly
along/east of the central mountain chain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

The primary aviation impacts the next 24 hrs will be storms over
northeast NM this afternoon, a sharp northerly wind shift across
eastern NM tonight, MVFR low cigs and light showers overnight and
Saturday morning across eastern NM, then strong canyon winds at
KABQ around sunrise. High-based showers and storms will develop
along the I-25 corridor between KRTN and KLVS by 20Z then shift
east toward KCAO and KTCC by 00Z before exiting into TX thru 03Z.
The strongest wind gusts of 25 to 35 kt are likely from KCAO to
KTCC between 1am and 5am followed by low cig development in the
wake of the front east of the central mt chain. Gap winds are
expected to peak at KABQ near 15Z with an Airport Weather Warning
highly likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR POTENTIAL LARGE FIRE GROWTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...

Higher humidities over eastern areas with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms today, will spread into central areas as well on
Saturday enabling thunderstorm chances to spread further west as
well.  Isolated gusty and dry storms are forecast across the
continental divide region of northwest NM on Saturday afternoon,
with scattered to isolate wetting storms on the eastern plains.  A
persistent fire growing pattern will then develop Sunday through mid
week as a broad longwave trough sets up over the western US with
multiple shortwave troughs rotating through it.  These will keep the
flow aloft dry and strong over NM with daily rounds of widespread
critical fire weather conditions.  With this forecast package will
issue a Fire Weather Watch for the I-25 corridor westward on Sunday,
as well as the Sandia/Manzano Mountains, where critical conditions
will be favored.  The critical conditions will spread to the plains
as well starting Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  76  42  78  45 /   0   0   5   0
Dulce...........................  72  33  73  36 /   0   0  30  20
Cuba............................  71  41  69  39 /   0   0  20  10
Gallup..........................  73  36  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  68  38  71  39 /   0   0   5   0
Grants..........................  74  36  74  35 /   0   0  10   0
Quemado.........................  72  39  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  75  46  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  70  42  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  77  36  77  37 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  81  49  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  66  35  66  36 /   0   0  40  30
Los Alamos......................  71  48  67  46 /   0   0  20  20
Pecos...........................  71  42  65  42 /  10   0  20  40
Cerro/Questa....................  66  43  64  41 /   5   0  40  20
Red River.......................  62  31  60  33 /  10   0  40  30
Angel Fire......................  63  25  58  31 /  10   0  40  30
Taos............................  72  34  69  36 /   5   0  30  20
Mora............................  70  36  62  38 /  10   0  30  40
Espanola........................  79  44  76  46 /   0   0  20  20
Santa Fe........................  73  47  69  45 /   5   0  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  77  44  72  44 /   0   0  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  79  53  75  51 /   0   0  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  81  50  77  49 /   0   0  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  83  50  79  48 /   0   0  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  52  77  49 /   0   0   5   5
Belen...........................  83  47  80  45 /   0   0   5   5
Bernalillo......................  82  50  78  49 /   0   0  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  82  47  79  46 /   0   0   5   5
Corrales........................  82  50  78  48 /   0   0  10   5
Los Lunas.......................  82  47  79  45 /   0   0   5   5
Placitas........................  77  50  72  48 /   0   0  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  81  50  77  49 /   0   0  10   5
Socorro.........................  86  50  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  71  47  66  45 /   0   0  10  10
Tijeras.........................  74  47  69  45 /   0   0  10  10
Edgewood........................  75  42  69  44 /   0   0  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  37  70  41 /   5   0   5  10
Clines Corners..................  72  39  64  41 /  10   0   5  20
Mountainair.....................  75  42  70  42 /   0   0   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  75  43  71  41 /   0   0   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  79  51  77  49 /   0   0   5  10
Ruidoso.........................  71  47  69  44 /   0   0  10  10
Capulin.........................  67  34  60  41 /  30  10  10  20
Raton...........................  72  36  66  41 /  20   5  20  20
Springer........................  74  38  65  43 /  20   0  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  73  38  64  41 /  10   0  20  30
Clayton.........................  72  42  64  46 /  30  30   5  30
Roy.............................  73  41  64  45 /  20  10  10  30
Conchas.........................  82  47  72  49 /  20  10  10  40
Santa Rosa......................  80  44  67  47 /  20   5  10  40
Tucumcari.......................  81  47  70  49 /  20  10  20  40
Clovis..........................  83  52  70  51 /  20  10  30  50
Portales........................  85  52  70  51 /  20  10  30  60
Fort Sumner.....................  84  48  71  50 /  20   5  20  40
Roswell.........................  91  56  81  56 /   5   0  20  30
Picacho.........................  84  48  73  49 /   5   0  10  20
Elk.............................  81  47  77  46 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for NMZ101-105-106-109-120>124.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42