Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 252326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
726 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring mostly clear and dry
weather through tonight. Clouds will increase on Tuesday but
most of the day will be dry. A cold front approaching from the
west will bring rain showers to the region Tuesday night through
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 725 PM EST, clear skies regionwide, with dry air and light
winds in place. This sets up favorable conditions for
radiational cooling and rapid temperature drops after sunset,
especially where snowpack remains and winds trend to calm. Have
lowered forecast mins slightly across portions of the southern
Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley, where these conditions are
more likely to occur the longest.

Otherwise, no other changes other than minor adjustments to
current temps/dewpoints/winds.

[PREVIOUS 339 PM EDT]...Surface high pressure will slowly
begin to retreat farther to the north and east tonight. An
upper-level low will continue to spin across the western
Atlantic; however, low-level moisture from this system could
lead to an expansion of low-level clouds toward daybreak,
especially for areas south and east of Albany. Elsewhere, a
mainly clear night is expected.

Where snowpack remains and there are little if any clouds and
light winds, temperatures could fall quickly tonight. Some of
these areas could fall into the teens. Elsewhere, lows will be
mainly in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low-level moisture continues to increase on Tuesday from
southeast to northwest associated with the low pressure system
over the Atlantic. In addition, a frontal system will continue
to slowly approach from the west. Overall, Tuesday is looking
dry for most areas as we will remain in-between these two
features. Highs look to reach the 40s to lower 50s, but
portions of eastern New England may be stuck in the upper 30s.

Some CAMs suggest that low- level cold air could become trapped
underneath a warm nose aloft across areas mainly east of the
Hudson River on Tuesday and the lowest levels of the atmosphere
will be rather saturated. This could hold temperatures down
more on than currently forecast. In addition, this could result
in some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle (depending on air
temperatures) which could also continue through Tuesday night.

The frontal system approaches from the west Tuesday night
through Wednesday. The primary low and upper-level forcing with
this system will remain well to the north and west of the area.
This will cause the approaching cold front to weaken and slow
upon its approach and may even stall over the region. As a
result, only looking at scattered rain showers across the region
with overall low QPF amounts. Temperatures should rebound into
the mid-40s to mid-50s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level trough over the upper Midwest on Wednesday night
will slowly shift towards the Northeast for Thursday into
Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure will be developing along a
stalled frontal boundary along the eastern seaboard on Thursday
and lifting northeast just offshore for Thursday night into
Friday. As a result, there could be some additional showers that
spread across the area on Wed night, with some steady rainfall
possible for eastern and southeastern areas for Thursday into
Friday. Although the heaviest rainfall looks to stay southeast
of the area closer to the coast, there could be some rainfall
amounts that exceed one inch for southeastern areas. Depending
on how quickly some cold air moves in aloft from the west, there
could be a changeover to wet snow before ending, especially for
the high terrain for western New England. Daytime temps look
seasonable (upper 40s to low 50s in valley areas) 30s at night
(some upper 20s for the high terrain).

Behind this system, mainly dry weather is expected over the
weekend, with just a spotty rain shower possible. Skies will be
partly cloudy with temps still close to normal. Another system
could spread some more rain towards the area for early next week
from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes will continue
to bring dry conditions through Tuesday morning. VFR conditions
will occur into tonight, with low stratus clouds at MVFR levels
expected to increase from south to north late tonight into
Tuesday morning from around 08Z-11Z/Tue at KPOU to 15Z-18Z/Tue
at KGFL.

There could be some spotty light showers or patchy drizzle
developing after 20Z/Tue, with best chances at KPOU and KPSF.
There could be lower MVFR to borderline IFR Cigs and MVFR Vsbys
developing within any patches of drizzle.

Winds will become mainly variable less than 5 kt overnight into
Tuesday morning, trending into the east to northeast at 5-10 KT
Tuesday afternoon.

Low level wind shear is possible at KPSF overnight, as winds
around 2000 FT AGL increase from the east at 30-40 KT, while
surface winds generally remain under 6 KT.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...KL/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...KL/JPV


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