282
FXUS64 KAMA 010524
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1224 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Another nice night is in store for the Panhandles. Lows tonight
should be very similar to last night, with mid 40s across the
northwest to upper 50s to the east. Attention shifts to the fire
weather and severe thunderstorm concerns for tomorrow. Low end
critical fire weather is looking very likely for the central and
west. Latest hi-res guidance still suggests the dryline may remain
somewhere across the eastern CWA tomorrow. Have blended in a mix
of hi-res guidance dew points to better establish the potential
dryline positioning. Do not plan on making any adjustments to the
Red Flag Warning at this time, but will note that additional areas
in the central and north central may need to be added at a later
time due to the lower relative humidity values.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Our upper level pattern changes slightly as an upper trough
expands southward and traverses across our area on Wednesday.
Until then zonal flow continues in the Panhandles for the rest of
today.

Breezy southwesterly winds alongside a mostly stable airmass will
promote a sharp rise in high temperatures today, where many
places in the CWA could reach the lower 90`s. Only elevated fire
weather conditions exist today, since RFTI values are not expected
to be met for critical fire weather. Despite low relative humidty
values, surface winds will not be strong enough to promote a fire
risk.

By Wednesday, critical fire weather is expected for the western
Panhandles behind the dryline. Meanwhile east of the dryline a
conditional chance for thunderstorms exist for the eastern
Panhandles, some of which could become severe. Models mostly agree
on the dryline placement in our CWA tomorrow afternoon, but how
far east it sets up is still in question. Favorable instability
is in place, but weaker 0-6 km bulk shear may inhibit discrete
storms from forming. If a supercell can form large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps a tornado will be possible. There are still
some capping concerns, but higher temperatures and less initial
cloud coverage will help erode the inhibition. CAM guidance is
still somewhat split on where storms may fire up if at all
tomorrow, but the converging storm initiation time looks to be
around 4 PM. Currently, precipitation looks to be most favored in
the southeast, so we have left NBM POPs in to reflect this notion.

Rangel

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are expected for the western
Panhandles Wednesday afternoon through the evening. As a dryline
sets up and passes through, minimum RH values will approach the
single digits and surface winds will increase. Wind gusts could
even reach 40 mph during the afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is now
in effect for the areas mentioned above. RFTI values up to 5 are
possible, while ERC percentiles are up to 90 percent. The best
areas to see these critical conditions will be the northwestern
Panhandles. Areas further south have slightly lower RFTIs and ERCs
so marginally critical conditions are forecast to be met.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Semi-zonal upper level flow is expected for Thursday and Thursday
night. A very minor shortwave trof embedded in this flow is
progged to zip eastward across the region during this time period,
and could bring a few showers and thunderstorms to parts of the
eastern OK and eastern TX Panhandles Thursday afternoon and night.
NBM slight chance pops look reasonable and were accepted.

For Friday through Sunday night, a few minor upper level shortwave
trofs embedded in the overall mean flow are forecast to move across
the region and will bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms
during this time frame. Based on the predicted track of these minor
features, the southern Texas Panhandle may have the best chance of
receiving precipitation, while the far northern and northwestern
zones may have the lowest chance. NBM pops reflect the above scenario
and were utilized in the appropriate grids.

A much stronger upper level low pressure system is then slated to
move across Colorado and the central and northern plains region
Monday into Tuesday. This suggested path offered by medium range
models would prove to be more of a dry, windy, and warm scenario
for our forecast area. Medium range models and associated ensemble
members are in reasonable agreement and were accepted. That said,
warmer temperatures along with breezy to windy conditions and dry
weather are in the offing for Monday and Tuesday at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Primary aviation concern ahead is the potential for stratus at GUY
around 12z. At this time, confidence is too low to include a
ceiling but have continued to carry a SCT mention as a heads up.
While thunderstorms may occur in the eastern Panhandles Wednesday
afternoon and evening, at this time probability that these will
impact AMA/GUY appears too low for inclusion in the TAFs.

Ferguson

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are expected for the western
Panhandles Wednesday afternoon through the evening. As a dryline
sets up and passes through, minimum RH values will approach the
single digits and surface winds will increase. Wind gusts could
even reach 40 mph during the afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is now
in effect for the areas mentioned above. RFTI values up to 5 are
possible, while ERC percentiles are up to 90 percent. The best
areas to see these critical conditions will be the northwestern
Panhandles. Areas further south have slightly lower RFTIs and ERCs
so marginally critical conditions are forecast to be met.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                91  53  78  50 /  10  20   0  10
Beaver OK                  89  53  78  44 /  20  20  10  10
Boise City OK              86  46  74  42 /   0   0   0  10
Borger TX                  96  55  80  50 /  10  20  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              93  52  80  49 /   0  10   0  10
Canyon TX                  91  53  79  49 /  10  20   0  10
Clarendon TX               91  56  80  52 /  30  40  10  20
Dalhart TX                 87  47  76  43 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  88  49  77  43 /  10  10   0  10
Hereford TX                91  53  80  49 /  10  10   0  10
Lipscomb TX                89  56  79  49 /  30  30  10  20
Pampa TX                   91  55  78  50 /  20  30  10  20
Shamrock TX                86  58  79  52 /  40  50  20  20
Wellington TX              87  58  82  53 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...77