251
FXUS64 KAMA 300516
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1216 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Cumulus clouds are observed across the north central and
northeastern Panhandles at this time. There appears to have been
a few attempts at a shower or storm, but they have been
unsuccessful. With that being said, showers or storms are not
expected the rest of this evening. With some breezy winds
continuing through the overnight hours for portions of the central
and eastern Panhandles, lows tonight will be warmer than they
were this morning, ranging from the mid 40s west to upper 50s east.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Based on current GOES water vapor imagery there is an area of mid
to upper low pressure over MN. Upstream is another mid to upper
level low pressure system sitting over the PacNW. Over the
Panhandles flow aloft is currently WNW as a trough associated with
the MN low is in portions of NE, KS, and OK making its way towards
the Mississippi River Valley. Flow aloft is progged to continue to
become more zonal with increasing H5 heights into tomorrow. The
increasing heights are to bring warmer temperatures in the lower
80s today and upper 80s to low 90s tomorrow.

For today, a very diffuse dryline/surface trough boundary will
split the combined Panhandles with winds more out of the southeast
for the eastern half and southwest for the western half. Winds are
not expected to be very breezy today with speeds mainly maxing out
around 15 mph. Areas in the east will see Tds in the 40s while the
west sees Tds in the 20s. A small area in the central Panhandle
will Tds in the 30s.

Tomorrow, the surface low in eastern NM will move northeast
creating a triple point over south central KS, with a cold front
across portions of western KS. A secondary surface low is also
progged to develop over NE NM with southwest winds pushing some of
the higher Tds in the eastern Panhandles off into western OK. A
cold front is looking to approach the OK Panhandle in western KS,
most likely hanging up just short of the OK Panhandle, but may
enter OK stopping short of the TX Panhandle. Behind this front Tds
are expected to be in the upper 30s to 40s while the rest of the
FA sees Tds in the teens to low 20s. This dry air from the surface
trough to west will contribute to some really low RH values as low
as 9 percent as daytime highs approach 90. With no upper level
support the surface low is expected to remain weak with gradient
winds around 15 mph tomorrow afternoon, potentially upwards of 20
mph. Thanks to the winds remaining on the lighter side for
Panhandle standards, fire weather conditions are not of great
concern. Potentially just some RH driven elevated conditions for
the northwestern Panhandles where some of the driest fuels reside.

Going into tomorrow evening, a resurgence of surface moisture may
occur for the far southeastern TX Panhandle, mainly Collingsworth
County. Depending on the tightness and formation of a dryline
oriented southwest to northeast, some thunderstorm activity for
Collingsworth cannot be entirely ruled out. However, confidence
is low at this time with maybe less than 20 percent chance for a
thunderstorm to form tomorrow evening. Later into the night Tds
are expected to rise across much of the area, with exception of
the southwest TX Panhandle. To the east a dryline will retreat but
become diffuse bringing higher Tds, while northerly winds in the
northwestern combined Panhandles could see slightly higher Tds
behind a front with a weak triple point in the northeastern
combined Panhandles. Thanks to the return of surface moisture
overnight lows going into Wed morning will be in the 50s across
the southeastern half of the combined Panhandles with 40s across
the northwest.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A dryline will likely set up somewhere in the eastern Panhandles by
Wednesday afternoon.  The models are not in agreement with their
surface depiction of the dryline.  Some have it further east to near
the Oklahoma state line and some have it just east of a Guymon to
Amarillo line.  Current thinking is that it will probably set up
somewhere in between.  At any rate, thunderstorms will be possible
in association with the dryline late Wednesday afternoon and
evening.  Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado are all possible
if storms develop.  There is a chance that the dryline may not be
active if the cap holds or the moisture is not deep enough.

Showers and thunderstorms will then be possible across parts of the
Panhandles Thursday through Sunday.

A cold front moves through the Panhandles early Thursday morning and
the upslope flow along with a an upper level disturbance may help to
bring showers and thunderstorms to the CWA.  On Friday, there could
be a relative min in rain chances, but moisture and lift return late
Friday night into Saturday that will help to bring another round of
showers and thunderstorms.  Another upper level wave will move
across on Sunday bringing additional chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

After highs near 90 on Wednesday, temperatures will be mainly in the
70`s Thursday through Sunday.

Goehring

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conditions are favored to prevail over the next 24 hours, with
winds out of the southwest during the day and southeast at night.
Main concern for aviation interest is LLWS at all sites over the
next couple hours, as suggested by short term models and KAMA VAD
observations.

Ferguson

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Have gone ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday
across the northwest Panhandles. Southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph
will combine with lowest relative humidities of around 8 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                91  56  91  55 /   0   0  10  10
Beaver OK                  95  54  92  55 /   0   0  20  20
Boise City OK              88  44  88  47 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  97  57  96  57 /   0   0  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              93  50  94  53 /   0   0  10  10
Canyon TX                  90  55  91  54 /   0   0  10  10
Clarendon TX               92  58  90  58 /   0   0  30  30
Dalhart TX                 89  43  89  47 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  92  47  91  50 /   0   0  10  10
Hereford TX                91  53  91  53 /   0   0  10  10
Lipscomb TX                94  58  91  57 /   0   0  30  30
Pampa TX                   92  58  90  56 /   0   0  20  20
Shamrock TX                91  58  88  59 /  10  10  40  40
Wellington TX              91  59  87  60 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ001-006.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...77