014
FXUS64 KAMA 290525
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1225 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Latest radar imagery has a few showers and thunderstorms across
northeastern New Mexico, with the best updraft currently west-
southwest of Clayton. CAMs continue to suggest some of these
showers or storms may reach the western Panhandles before
diminishing later this evening, so have slightly expanded PoPs
across the west and northwest. Some thunder has been observed with
some of the cells so have added thunder mentions to the ongoing
forecast as well. After sunset, the thunder threat should greatly
diminish and the coverage of any showers and/or storms should also
decrease. If any storms move into our area, lightning, sporadic
gusty winds, and small hail would be possible with the strongest
updrafts.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Showers along with a few thunderstorms are expected to make a run a
the northwest CWA late this afternoon and evening.  Most of the
showers and storms should dissipate by sunset, but there is a weak
disturbance that moves across the Oklahoma Panhandle that could help
keep some of the activity going overnight.  At any rate, not
expecting much precipitation from any showers or storms that would
happen to move across our northern CWA.

Surface winds converge along a trough in the eastern CWA by Monday
afternoon.  Surface moisture is not the greatest, but if a well
timed disturbance can move across, then there could be a
thunderstorm or two across the northeast CWA Monday afternoon.

Lows tonight are expected to be mainly in the 40`s. However, there
could be a few upper 30`s in the northwest with a few lower 50`s in
the southeast.  Highs on Monday are expected to range from the mid
70`s in the northwest to the mid 80`s in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Warm temperatures expected Tue and Wed with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s possible. Thu through Fri are looking to have cooler
behind a frontal passage. Fri being the coolest with afternoon
highs in the low to mid 70s. Sat may potentially rebound into the
lower 80s once again. Still some uncertainty out in Day 7.

As far as precipitation goes, Wed through Thu morning a dryline
may set up over the area again with many ingredients for a severe
storm potential for the eastern combined Panhandles. This is
looking like only a potential once again, as one ingredient may
still fall short with storms unable to initiate in the first
place. It is still quite early to tell how far west the dryline
will actually be and whether a cap will be in play to minimize
storm production. Have left NBM PoPs in for now with which give 20
to 40 percent to the southeastern third to half of the FA Wed
afternoon. NBM only gives a 10 pop the night before on Tue, this
will have to be monitored as some guidance suggests some possible
thunderstorms in the far eastern combined Panhandles on Tue as
well. Thu storm chances will all depend on the progression of the
front. If the front can move in slower and keep the dryline in the
east longer some thunderstorms may be possible in the far eastern
Panhandles on Thu as well.

Fri through Sat showers and thunderstorms may be possible also,
depending on the nature and progression of the H5 trough that
brings the initial front on Thu with more CAA on Fri. Some of the
models suggests this initial upper level trough moves off but is
followed by additional shortwave troughs impacting the area late
Fri into the weekend.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions are extremely likely (95%) to prevail over the next
24 hours at all sites, with an incredibly small chance for a
visibility reduction at DHT due to a passing shower over the next
few hours but, even if rain occurs, VFR conditions are still
favored to prevail.

Ferguson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                82  51  89  56 /   0   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  83  53  93  55 /  10   0   0  10
Boise City OK              77  46  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  86  53  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              83  49  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  81  50  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               83  54  91  58 /   0   0  10  10
Dalhart TX                 79  44  88  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  80  47  90  48 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                82  50  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                83  55  93  58 /  10  10  10  10
Pampa TX                   82  53  90  58 /   0   0  10  10
Shamrock TX                83  55  91  60 /  10   0  10  10
Wellington TX              84  55  91  60 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...77