Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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214 FXUS63 KAPX 100727 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 327 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower chances tonight and Saturday. - Patchy frost possible Saturday morning. - Warming trend; Showers with possible embedded thunderstorms Sunday into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 242 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Synopsis/Pattern: High pressure extends ne-ward into the upper MS Valley and western Lk Superior. Low pressure over far northern Ontario extends a cold front toward Winnipeg and eastern ND. Aloft, a digging shortwave will deepen and close off as it heads for the northern lakes. This will result in a surface wave deepening along the cold front, with the resulting low directly over our heads at daybreak Saturday. Forecast: Lights winds this morning will give way to a weak west synoptic wind this afternoon. Flow will be weak enough for lake breeze development. Localized convergence will be highest somewhat inland in ne lower MI, and where lake breezes collide in eastern upper. Instability looks meager, maybe 100-200j/kg, but we`ve got enough localized forcing to take advantage of minimal Cape. Will maintain a slight chance for a shower this afternoon in parts of eastern upper and ne lower MI. Otherwise a partly to mostly sunny day, though with clouds increasing late. Max temps in the 60s. Tonight, isentropic ascent increases in a relatively narrow ribbon, ahead of a deepening surface low and amplifying 500mb wave. Moisture availability is somewhat limited, with surface ridging dominating the se states and central plains. But forcing will be enough to generate showers in a portion of the area. In the evening and early overnight, will mention a chance of showers w of I-75 in both peninsulas. Showers will progress se- ward with time; likely pops forecast overnight in the sw third of the forecast area (including MBL/TVC/Gladwin. Pops decrease to a slight chance or less north of the big bridge. Looks to be on the cloudy side across the area. Min temps within a few degrees of 40f. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 242 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: An upper-level low tracks into Northern Michigan spreading rain showers/shallow convection across the CWA Friday night into Saturday. Moisture advection and more energy tracking overhead Sunday into next week will result in the chance for rain showers once again for the next several days. However, as previously stated, a brief break in activity could be possible mid next week (Tuesday/ Wednesday) as energy looks to be situated to the north and south of the region while in a more zonal flow. Unsettled weather returns for later in the week as another system impacts the CWA bringing back chances for rain showers. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: - Rain showers/ shallow convection Saturday; patchy frost possible Saturday morning: Winds shift northerly Friday into Saturday as a low pressure tracks across Northern Michigan. As such, a cold airmass is drawn southward into the region, leading to the possibility of enough instability to create a rumble of thunder or two, especially in the afternoon. With the cooler airmass overhead, winds expected to become light, clouds clearing, and temperatures expected to drop into the 30s, the possibility arises that patchy frost could be a concern for Saturday morning. This potential is mainly for interior/higher terrain and the typical valley locations. - Warming trend; Showers with possible embedded thunderstorms Sunday into early next week: A short-lived ridge builds in for Saturday evening into Sunday promoting clearing for Saturday night. As winds shift more southerly for Sunday, a warming trend in temperatures is expected as we head into next week. With these southerly winds, a flux of moisture will be brought to the region along with increasing clouds and more chances for rain showers (with possible embedded thunderstorms) next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1143 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Only concern is MVFR to IFR producing fog/br and low clouds impacting KMBL early this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue under just some passing higher level clouds and relatively high based cumulus. Light winds will local lake breeze development expected this afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...MSB