387
FXUS65 KBOI 101522
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
922 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery showing some mid-level clouds
this morning in association with the upper low over the Great
Basin. Higher terrain of SW Idaho and far SE Oregon will see
afternoon cumulus buildups. Instability along the ID/NV border
will be enough for a low chance (15%) of showers, otherwise the
region is dry and mild today. Current forecast is on track for
today.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Scattered cumulus buildups over the mountains
after 18Z. Sfc winds: NW-NE 5-15 kt, gusts to 20 kt along the
ID/NV border. Winds at 10k ft MSL: Generally E-NE around 10 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Sfc winds: SE in the morning, becoming NW in the
afternoon.

.WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR under clear skies. Surface winds 5-15
kt, locally up to 20 kt in the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...An upper level ridge
to our northwest will dominate our weather into Sunday as it
weakens and drifts south. Late Sunday into Monday, an upper
level trough will move in from the west. Temps will continue to
warm each day through Sunday, with highs around 5 degrees above
normal today, 10 above normal Saturday, and 10-15 above normal
Sunday. It will be dry with mostly clear skies and relatively
light winds.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...As the upper level trough
moves through early Monday into Monday afternoon, winds will
increase out of the northwest for most folks. There is a slight
chance to chance (10-30%) of showers/thunderstorms in far
southeast Owyhee and Twin Falls counties. An upper level ridge
will build in after this trough Monday evening, but models do
not agree on how long it will stay around. Some (such as the
latest deterministic ECMWF) have it strengthen through the end
of next week, and this would bring us dry and warm weather.
Others (such as the latest deterministic GFS), weaken it and
bring an upper trough through the PacNW Thu night into Friday.
For now, we are slightly more confident in the ECMWF depiction
of things, but the long term forecast is based on neither of
these extremes coming to fruition, with something in the middle
the most likely solution. With this in mind, slight chance PoPS
over much of the northern CWA extend from Wed evening to Thu
evening. We are keeping Friday dry at this time. The warm NBM
temp forecasts seem to favor the warmer ECMWF solution, but if
the GFS ends up being closer to the truth, we will eventually
need to adjust these downward at least 10 degrees.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP