315
FXUS61 KCAR 011319
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
919 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will pass south of the Gulf of Maine this
morning. High pressure builds to the north of the region
tonight, followed by weak low pressure passing to the southwest
Thursday. High pressure then builds down from the north
Thursday night through Friday night, then slowly retreats to the
north and east through Saturday night. A frontal system
approaches from the west on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:19AM Update...Minor adjustments to sky conditions with
clearing skies thanks to drying boundary layer conditions. We
see clearing making it south through much of Piscataquis County
now and into all of Northern Somerset, Penobscot and all of
Aroostook. Low clouds are starting to break in the rest of
Penobscot, Northern Hancock and Northern Washington. Moisture in
the boundary layer should begin to dry with the higher sun angle
and expect sunny breaks. At the same time visible satellite and
webcams show cu forming on the Longfellow Mtns southwest of
Baxter State Park into Piscataquis County. This is typical with
moisture aloft and stable air being forced to rise over the
Mountains and expecting fair wx cu to develop today with the
terrain. No real winds today generally light and variable but
modeled soundings across the north showing the atmosphere mixed
up to 850-800mb. Given this opted to lower the Td`s across the
north resulting in Min RHs in the 35-40% range. Overall, no
major changes.

645 am update...
Clouds have cleared acrs the north with low clouds still
lingering south of Millinocket. Expect these may break up this
afternoon but wil likely persist, especially around the Bangor
region thus have lowered maxes in this area as well as the
Central Highlands.

Prev discussion blo...
Sfc low to the south of Martha/s Vineyard will be heading east this
morning with showers pushing out of the area around daybreak.
Clearing skies have moved into wrn areas under negative vorticity
advection and will likely continue to be the case thru today. Mostly
sunny skies likely over nrn zones this afternoon though cannot rule
out a scattered cu field developing with lingering H8 moisture. As a
result have bumped temps into the lwr 60s over nrn and central
areas.

Upr ridge will be cresting over CWA this evening before
beginning to flatten as upstream wave moves thru srn Canada.
This wv will begin to spread showers into the Central Highlands
late tonight. Only a few hundredths of an inch is expected thru
12z Thursday over the far west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A surface low and mid level trough will move out of Quebec and
across Maine on Thursday and should exit the area by late in the
day.  This will bring showers, mainly to areas from the Katahdin
Region south to the coast. Most of the guidance keeps areas north of
Katahdin dry. Made some adjustments to the PoPs/QPF for
Thursday to go higher with the PoP/QPF south with likely to
categorical PoPs, and lowered the PoPs across the northern third
of the FA where it likely remains dry. Highs will mostly be in
the 50s on Thursday with the coolest temperatures likely to be
Downeast where there will be more dense clouds and showers.

The region remains in a block Thursday night into Friday with an
upper low in the northwest Atlantic and a mid level ridge slowly
trying to build toward the area from the west.  The ridge axis will
remain west of New England through 00z Saturday.  Shower chances
diminish, but with the flow around the low to our east it might be
tough to break out of the clouds.  Temperatures will will be near to
perhaps a few degrees below average for highs Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid/upper level ridge builds east across the region by
Saturday along with a surface high. Dry weather is expected with
temperatures a few degrees milder than Friday and close to
seasonable levels for early May. The next weather system begins
to approach from the west on Sunday with increasing clouds.
Temperatures should be a bit milder and may approach 60F for
some inland areas. An onshore flow will keep highs much cooler
along the coast.

A frontal system will likely cross the area either Sunday night
or Monday with the chance of showers, but the timing varies
between the models. The showers could be a bit more robust if
they line up with peak heating on Monday, but that remains to be
seen. It should dry out Tuesday, but with west/northwest flow
weak disturbances in a fast flow could touch off an isolated
shower, mainly across the north. Temperatures will likely be a
bit above average. Did lower the NBM PoPs just a bit for Sunday
night to remove likely PoPs given the timing differences and
uncertainty this far out, otherwise no significant changes to
the ongoing forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR at most terminals today. Uncertainty remains for
BGR and BHB this morning with potential for MVFR cigs especially
at BHB and possibly IFR at some point this morning. These sites
likely to improve to VFR this afternoon though uncertainty
returns for tonight, with potential MVFR/IFR restrictions toward
end of TAF valid time.

SHORT TERM: Thursday: MVFR at KBGR and KBHB with low chance for
IFR in the morning and early afternoon in low clouds and
showers. Predominately VFR at the Aroostook terminals, but low
chance for MVFR at KHUL. E/SE wind 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night and Friday: MVFR possible Thursday evening at
KBHB, otherwise VFR. Wind shifting N around 5 knots Thursday
night, and NE 10 to 15 knots on Friday.

Saturday through Sunday: VFR, with a low chance of MVFR
late in the day Sunday. E/SE wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming S 10
to 15 knots Sunday with a few higher gusts in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain well below small craft levels
today and tonight.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below
small craft advisory levels Thursday through the upcoming
weekend. Seas generally 2 ft or less on the coastal waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/Sinko
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Buster/Sinko/CB
Marine...Buster/Sinko/CB