954
FXUS64 KCRP 182231
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
531 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Key Message:

-Moderate Risk for heat related illness today and tomorrow

After yesterdays storms, a quiet period replaces the weather pattern
with a more summer like one. A mid-level trough continues to move
east of our CWA today, allowing for ridging to take its place. A mid-
level high will build over Mexico and will nose into Texas and the
Plains during the short term period leading to mostly sunny
conditions during daytime hours.

Temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon will be very
similar, topping out in the 90-100 degree range across South Texas.
Heat Indices both days will range 100-105 degrees with a Moderate
Risk for heat related illness that affects those sensitive to heat,
especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration. Please take precautions to stay cool/hydrated and check
up on others, and remember to look before you lock. Overnight lows
will bottom out in the low to mid 70s each night with partly to
mostly cloudy skies with light onshore winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Key Message:

- Increasing risk of heat-related impacts next week

The main concern in the long term is our increasing risk for heat-
related impacts through the week. The combination of a nearly
stationary upper level ridge and persist onshore flow at the surface
will allow for increasing temperatures and heat indices. The
forecast looks to be fairly dry over the next week despite
increasing low level moisture as subsidence aloft dominates.
However, if we want to be disappointed later on this week, we could
say that a passing shortwave on Wed/Thu and a boundary stalling to
our north could warrant some low-end PoPs but confidence is very low
in that scenario.

Back to the heat...temperatures each afternoon will settle into the
low 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush Country. Heat
indices on Monday will generally range from 105-109 west of I-37.
Conditions worsen as we head into the middle of the week with heat
indices climbing into the 110-114 range from Tuesday on. These
conditions will promote a major to potentially extreme risk for heat-
related impacts. There won`t be much relief at night as overnight
lows are forecast to remain in the low 80s which would keep heat
indices in the 90s across the Brush Country and along the Coastal
Bend. Daily Heat Advisories will likely be needed with the potential
for Excessive Heat Warnings late in the work week. WPC currently has
a medium to high chance of heat indices exceeding 110 daily and a
medium chance of us exceeding 115 by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon through evening before
visibilities could become an issue tonight into tomorrow morning
across the eastern sites. There is a medium chance for ALI and VCT
to drop below 3SM tonight and a low to medium chance to drop below
1SM. Due to the low confidence, went with predominantly MVFR
conditions with a tempo for IFR. The western sites should remain
VFR all night. All sites will be VFR tomorrow morning with light
winds throughout this TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Weak northeasterly flow veers back onshore tonight and persists
through Sunday night increasing to moderate flow Monday. A
generally moderate onshore flow will continue through much of the
week. Periods of occasionally strong onshore flow is possible
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon across the southern bays and
nearshore waters. Otherwise, expect hot and dry conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  76  92  76 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          92  72  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo           100  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             96  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          89  77  89  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           99  74 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        94  75  94  76 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       89  79  89  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...JCP/84