Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS64 KCRP 212301
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
601 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Key Messages:

- Potential for areas of fog late tonight through early Friday
  morning mainly over the Coastal Plains and over the bays and
  nearshore coastal waters

- An Elevated Fire Weather Risk may occur Friday Afternoon over
  the Brush Country and over the Rio Grande Plains

Strong subsidence behind an upper level disturbance, currently
moving eastward across the region, will result in significant
drying aloft tonight/Friday. Concur with the NAM deterministic run
which predicts a thermodynamic profile conducive to radiation fog
overnight/early Friday morning. The SREF visibility probability
output suggests that the bulk of the fog will be confined to the
Coastal Plains, and over the adjacent bays/nearshore waters. There
is a risk that fog will also affect the Brush Country/Rio Grande
Plains. Dry conditions expected Friday/Friday night, with below
normal PWAT values. The combination of low relative humidity
values and wind may result in an Elevated fire weather condition
over the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains Friday afternoon. The
20ft wind speeds will be a limiting factor. Owing to the
uncertainty, will defer to later shifts to decide on an RFD
issuance for Friday. An upper level disturbance predicted to move
across the US/Canadian border will contribute to a surge of high
pressure/weak cold front that is predict to enter the CWA Friday
night. The NAM predicts a thermodynamic profile conducive to fog
09-12z Saturday, yet winds associated with the surge of high
pressure/frontal boundary may preclude fog.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Key Messages:

-Breezy conditions are expected Sunday into early Monday with a 40-
60% chance of wind gusts over 40 MPH

- 20% chance for thunderstorms ahead of a cold front over the
Victoria Crossroads area Monday

Ridging over the area will bring mostly clear skies to the region to
begin the weekend. However, as we head into Sunday, the effects of
an approaching deep trough will begin to be felt. Southeasterly
winds will increase Sunday in response to a strengthening low level
jet and a tightening surface pressure gradient. There is currently a
40-60% chance of wind gusts over 40 mph Sunday afternoon.

These southerly low level winds will advect Gulf moisture into South
Texas with ensemble mean PWAT values forecast to rise above 1 inch
(just slightly above the 50th percentile for this time of year) by
Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, southwest flow above 400 hPa will
advect warmer and drier air from the elevated terrain of Mexico over
South Texas. Ensemble soundings exhibit a stout elevated mixed layer
extending from 700-400 hPa by Sunday evening which will inhibit the
development of convection along a cold front that is forecast to
push through the region Monday morning/afternoon. The most likely
location to see convection develop will be across the Victoria
Crossroads at the northeastern periphery of the elevated mixed layer
and the southern periphery of the increased mid-level support for
ascent associated with a Central Plains cyclone. However, the
chances for thunder are still forecast to be less than 20% on Monday.

High pressure is forecast to build in behind the surface cold front,
which will contribute to dry and warming conditions during the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

While cloud cover has begun to dissipate across portions of the
area, VCT ceilings remain IFR. IFR/LIFR ceilings will develop
around 06Z for all but LRD, where VFR/MVFR conditions will
prevail. Some drying aloft and continued high moisture at the
surface, combined with light winds could lead to the development
of fog, particularly over the Coastal Plains and points east.
Confidence is low, but have included a mention of MVFR to IFR
visibility over COT, ALI, and CRP, with LIFR visibility expected
over VCT.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Areas of fog may develop late tonight through late Friday morning
over the bays/nearshore coastal waters. Otherwise, the cessation
of precipitation expected tonight owing to subsidence behind an
upper level disturbance. Dry conditions expected Friday. There is
a risk that fog will develop again Friday night, yet the risk
seems lower given the approach of a surge of high pressure/weak cold
front. Onshore winds will increase significantly Sunday morning
and remain elevated through early Monday morning. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are expected with a 30%-50% chance of wind
gusts over 34 knots. A cold front is forecast to push through the
coastal waters late Monday morning into the afternoon hours with
winds gradually decreasing and Small Craft Advisory conditions
ending by Monday afternoon. Winds less than 15 knots are expected
during the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    62  88  58  78 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          60  80  55  78 /  10   0   0   0
Laredo            60  92  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             60  90  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          62  80  60  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           60  92  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        61  89  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       64  83  62  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC
LONG TERM....CLM
AVIATION...LS/77


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.