Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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683 FXUS61 KCTP 010715 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 315 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... -Showers give way to clearing skies and some patchy fog tonight -Warm/dry weather with lower humidity Wednesday-Thursday -Trending unsettled into the weekend with rain likely Sat/Sun && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/... THe only lingering showers are across the Lower Susquehanna Valley as of 10PM with all lightning activity now over. Showers will move east of the forecast area by midnight with a dry night expected areawide. Clearing skies are working their way into western PA as the cirrus deck associated with today`s weather system continues to pull north and east of the region. Light winds and clear skies will result in some patchy fog overnight thanks to a moisture- rich airmass with dewpoints in the upper 50s. Best chance for fog appears to be in the Laurel Highlands into Clearfield County where dewpoint depressions are the smallest and clearing will be most durable. Also can`t rule out some valley fog in the deepest valleys of the northern tier that have the best chance of decoupling, but the influx of drier air and lower dewpoints may be a limiting factor. Lows by Wednesday morning will range from the the middle 40s in northwest PA to near 60 in the southeast where clouds will be slow to clear overnight. && .SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Latest guidance continues to indicate warm/dry conditions through midweek with a trend toward unsettled weather into the weekend. Highs on Wednesday in the middle 70s to near 80 are +10 to +15 compared to average and Thursday will a few degrees warmer for much of the Commonwealth. Dry air entrainment/mixing heights combined with mostly sunny skies and mean westerly flow all signal to cut dewpoints and raise temps by a few degrees in-kind for both afternoons. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Easterly flow begins to take hold on Friday, as high pressure noses down the eastside of the Appalachians. This should result in cooler temperatures Friday, especially across eastern PA. This setup could also favor low clouds into the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley Friday night into Sat AM. A frontal boundary will slowly make it`s way eastward from the Midwest into the commonwealth Saturday into Sunday, accompanied by an increasing chc of showers and storms. Passage of the upper trough and associated front should bring drier conditions by Monday of next week, before an approaching warm front could bring a return of clouds and showers/storms on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low stratus has developed across the Laurel Highlands thanks to a moist, upslope flow. Patchy valley fog has also developed across much of north central PA, due to clearing skies, damp ground and diminishing winds. These will be the primary concerns through sunrise, with areas of locally LIFR vsby and cigs. Farther to the west, drier air filtering in from the northwest will work against the formation of fog. Expect quick improvement areawide Wed morning, with building high pressure providing mostly sunny skies and a W/NW sfc breeze of 5-10 kts. VFR conds will prevail with only mid and upper level clouds. Outlook... Thu-Fri AM...No sig wx expected. Fri PM-Sat...Scattered SHRA/TSRA developing from west to east w/ reductions possible. Sat night-Sun...Widespread SHRA/TSRA expected. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures were set at the following locations on Monday: SITE 2024 OBS PRVS RECORD Altoona 86F 83F (1956) Bradford 82F 76F (1984) Williamsport 89F 86F (1942/1974) It was also the first 80F day in Bradford so far this year, almost 2 weeks ahead of the average first 80F temperature (May 11th). && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banghoff NEAR TERM...Banghoff SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff LONG TERM...Gartner/Evanego AVIATION...Evanego/Colbert CLIMATE...Banghoff/Colbert