371
FXUS63 KDDC 290522
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1222 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend can be expected through Wednesday, with
  unseasonably warm temperatures Wednesday.

- Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

WV imagery indicates a closed upper low lifting northeast across
Nebraska into the Upper Midwest. Near the surface, an area of low
pressure is moving northeast through eastern Kansas.

Tranquil conditions are expected during the period as the SREF
indicates a closed upper low lifting farther northeast into the
Upper Midwest tonight, giving way to weak ridging aloft
transitioning eastward through the Northern Plains Monday. With a
weakening flow aloft across the Western High Plains and a lack of
moisture return in the lower levels, precip chances (<10%) will
remain relatively absent from western Kansas through late Monday
afternoon. Fairly seasonal temperatures are forecast tonight as a
weak surface high migrating through the Central Plains returns a
southerly flow to western Kansas by early Monday morning, helping
draw slightly warmer air back into the area. With the HREF showing a
30-40% probability of temperatures falling below 40F in central
Kansas to a 20-40% probability of temperatures falling below 45F in
south central Kansas, expect lows generally in the 40s(F) with the
upper 30s(F) in west central and central Kansas. For Monday, the
HREF paints a 30-50% probability of temperatures exceeding 75F in
west central Kansas to 90% in south central Kansas and southern
portions of southwest Kansas near the Oklahoma border. So, look for
afternoon highs in the 70s(F) to near 80F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) remain in the forecast for central
Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas mid-week as medium range
ensembles (EPS) indicate an upper level shortwave trough swinging
through the Great Basin Wednesday, ushering an attendant cold front
into western Kansas Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Prevailing
southerlies will draw ample moisture up into eastern/central Kansas
ahead of a developing low in eastern Colorado, increasing instability.
Although timing of the system remains uncertain, thunderstorm development
can be expected sometime late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening
as H5 vort maxima begin to eject out of the Southern Rockies through
the Western High Plains in conjunction with steepening mid-level lapse
rates. As it stands now, the best chance for thunderstorms will be
across central Kansas where the NBM 4.1 paints a 30-40% probability
of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.15 of an inch by early Thursday morning.

A warming trend continues into Tuesday as prevailing south-southwesterlies
draw warmer air into western Kansas ahead of an approaching cold front,
pushing H85 temperatures up around the mid-teens(c) in central Kansas
to a little above 20C along the Oklahoma border. With the NBM 4.1
indicating a 40-50% probability of temperatures exceeding 85F in west
central and central Kansas to a 90% probability of values exceeding
85F all along the Oklahoma border, expect afternoon highs generally
in the 80s(F) with the lower 90s(F) in south central Kansas. Similar
temperatures are forecast Wednesday as the aforementioned approaching
cold front is projected to stall out Tuesday night before lifting
back to the north Wednesday. A stronger cold front moving through
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning will drop temperatures to more
seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Light winds overnight will become southeast by daybreak and
then increase to around 15 knots between 18z and 21z today as
an area of high pressure at the surface moves east and surface
pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies. What
little moisture that the models have moving over southwest
Kansas will be at or above 12000ft AGL so VFR conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert