Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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376 FXUS63 KDVN 081748 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1248 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - MRGL risk for severe storms today. - An active pattern continues through early next week with chances of showers and storms every 24 to 36 hours. - Below normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday with a warming trend starting early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Today and Tonight: Upper low will be situated in nw IA vcnty so we will have a spin in the atmosphere. Sunshine will boost afternoon temperatures well into the 70s to around 80. This will yield MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg, along with sufficient shear (30-35 kt) and steepening lapse rates due to a cold pocket near -20C at H5. CAM`s develop numerous showers and at least scattered thunderstorms across much of the forecast area later this afternoon and continuing through much of the overnight hours. SPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the entire forecast area, with a Slight Risk in southern Hancock and southern McDonough counties. However, that small area is on the northern fringes of a significant severe weather outbreak from the mid MS Valley to the Mid South with the CAM`s keeping the worst of this activity well to our south. Severe potential in the Marginal Risk area includes hail, damaging winds to around 60 mph, and frequent lightning. Also there is a low probability (2%) of a tornado or two west of the MS River. In addition, PWAT`s increase to 1 to 1.50 inches so any thunderstorm will produce locally heavy rainfall. As of now, the NAMNEST suggests some locations may pick up 1+ inches of rainfall with slower moving storms. However, the NBM overall has most areas receiving less than an inch. We`ll see. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Thursday: The upper low basically weakens and gets absorbed into a trough that drops southward into the Midwest. Forcing from the trough and sufficient moisture will keep occasional showers and a few thunderstorms going for much of the day. A cold front will also be passing through the area with a north wind 10 to 20 mph. Along with extensive cloud cover this will be a much cooler day with highs in the 60 to 65 range. Friday through the weekend: Pattern change to a northwest flow as a deep trough sets up shop across the Great Lakes. Periodic disturbances in the flow will bring off and on showers and a few thunderstorms with chance pops every 24 to 36 hours. Temperatures will be on the cooler side with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s to around 50. Early to mid next week: Another pattern flip to a deep trough diving into the Northern Rockies and then into the Plains. This will warm our temperatures well into the 70s to lower 80s. Also, chances for thunderstorms will also be on the increase. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR conditions are expected through 00 UTC ahead of a storm system moves into the area after 00 UTC. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this evening with showers prevailing after 04 UTC and continuing through the remainder of the period. Conditions will slowly deteriorate to MVFR by 06 UTC from northwest to southeast with IFR after 09 UTC. The heaviest rainfall is forecast to fall overnight. Winds will veer from easterly this afternoon to northerly after 09 UTC. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haase LONG TERM...Haase AVIATION...Cousins