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000
FXUS63 KEAX 141155
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
655 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures expected through the middle of
  next week.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into
  Tuesday; potential for severe weather Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Upper ridge will continue to build into the central CONUS, with well
above normal temperatures expected to continue. In fact, as of early
this morning, readings were holding in the middle to upper 60s -
some 25 degrees above normal lows. With a similar thermal profile
and abundant sunshine as yesterday, should have no issues reaching
the middle 80s to near 90 degrees this afternoon. Wind speeds will
be notably weaker today as a weak boundary/wind shift settles across
the area during the late morning and afternoon.

Attention turns to a closed low ejecting into the Southern/Central
Plains by Monday/Tuesday. Models continue to trend this system
slower, which is not uncommon with closed low type situations. It
appears that initial deep convection on Monday will be further west
and later in the evening, well west of our CWA. Scattered elevated
convection should develop during Monday afternoon and evening across
portions of the CWA, but this activity should generally remain sub-
severe. One or two weakening complexes of convection should move
towards the CWA overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. It remains
too early to assess the state of severe, but with the timing and
storm morphology, coupled with climo behavior, there is supporting
evidence to suggest that much of the activity will be sub-severe
with waning instability, boundary layer cooling, and multiple cold
pools in play. Isolated wind gusts or marginally severe hail
would be the main concerns. The next layer of uncertainty
centers on coverage of morning convection and subsequently how
aggressively can the area clear in the wake of said activity.
Recent model runs have hinted at a sufficiently wide zone of
recovery by early afternoon, and with the slower motion of the
upper system, puts the focus for robust afternoon convection
over the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA. SPC has placed a Day 3
enhanced over portions of the CWA, and this seems reasonable
based on the impressive dynamics - again with the assumption
that sufficient recovery and moderate instability can
materialize. More specific details on hazards and timing will
be assessed in subsequent forecasts as confidence increases.

Thereafter, temperatures cool and trend closer to normal levels by
late week into next weekend. An upper trough skirting along the
Canada/US border and its associated ascent and mid-level
frontogenetical forcing may provide another shot at rainfall on
Thursday, but again, the details this far out remain murky at
best.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions persist through the period. Winds shift from
southwesterly to northeasterly during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Pesel