Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 180826
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
326 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 326 AM CDT WED APR 18 2018

Water vapor imagery showing a well-defined positively-tilted
trough working through central Nebraska this morning, with surface
observations showing main sfc low over Topeka and marching due
east. Main cold front set to arrive in the KC Metro and
surrounding locations very soon, with strong northwest winds of
25-30 mph along with higher gusts expected. Was initially
concerned a wind advisory would be needed for a few hours, but
latest RUC pressure change fields suggest the pressure rise
couplet is weakening with eastward progress. Regardless, its going
to be a windy morning with a tight pressure gradient ensuring
gusty northwest winds prevail through much of the day. This will
set the stage for elevated fire danger concerns across the region
as latest available fuel moisture intelligence suggests fuels are
still recovering after such a dry cool season. In any event,
temperatures will take a nose dive pretty soon with this trend
continuing through late morning before modest rises occur later
this afternoon. Main concern heading into the overnight will be
clearing skies and falling temps as lows drop into the lower 30s
for most. This combined with weakening winds should allow frost
formation for many areas, and the dayshift will likely need to
consider frost headlines.

Quiet weather will persist through the remainder of the work week
as weak upper ridging starts to approach the region tomorrow.
This should result in a gradual warm-up as we head towards Friday
with low 60s expected Friday afternoon. As for the upcoming
weekend, still a great deal of uncertainty with the next upper low
that fcst models still insist will pass to our south Saturday
into Sunday. Main question continue to be precip, and just how
far north it gets. For the most part, the Canadian and ECMWF keep
most of our region dry, and the GFS appears to be trending that
way as well. Regardless, the upcoming weekend doesn`t appear to be
a washout by any stretch of the imagination, which is a good
thing because we deserve a nice one finally. Once this feature
passes, models in good agreement that ridging will build overhead
for the start of next week. In fact, upper 60s look to make a
return on Monday before the next storm system brings the next
chance of rain by Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT TUE APR 17 2018

The forecast will start out with VFR conditions and a steady
easterly surface winds with some high clouds in place. A low
pressure system developing over western Kansas will into the area
around midnight creating multiple aviation issues for the area.
The first issue will be low level wind shear south of KSTJ as a
stronger southerly winds will be in place over a easterly surface
winds. This will last approximately 3 hours until the frontal
boundary pushes through and all winds shift to the NW. While the
low and frontal boundary push through the region an area of MVFR
ceilings will also advect into the area from around 7-8z up north
and around 12z over the KC area. These ceilings should also be
short lived and improve on the backside of the frontal boundary
around 16Z. Winds will be breezy in the late morning through the
evening with sustained winds near 20kts and gusts in the lower
30s.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Barham



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