Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211123

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Issued at 320 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2018

While the first 24 hours of the forecast period will be quiet, the
rest of the forecast package looks active providing several chances
for precipitation. Fortunately, precipitation will (almost) all be
in the liquid form with no severe weather expected.

This morning surface high pressure over the central Plains is
building east and will push into the area. This will allow morning
clouds to dissipate across the area bringing mostly sunny skies this
afternoon. The mostly sunny skies will aid temperatures to rising
into the upper 40s to mid 50s despite weak mixing. Tonight, high
pressure shifts east and WAA will get underway. WAA will continue
into the day Thursday helping temperature rise into the upper 50s to
mid 60s over most of the CWA. The exception will be over
northeastern Missouri where models are depicting a shortwave will
pass bringing the chance for a brief period of mixed precipitation
during the morning with showers during the day. Here, temperatures
will remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Friday a warm front will lift into the area providing a modest
temperature spread across the CWA ranging from the low to mid 50s
across the northeastern CWA to the mid to upper 60s south of the
warm front. Moisture is expected to pool along this boundary with
light showers possible during the day Friday. Friday night a cold
front will be forced into the CWA as a shortwave ejects out of the
Four Corners region into the central Plains. Storms will be
possible as the front moves through Friday night however, storms
are not expected to be severe due to limited instability. Showers
will continue into Saturday slowly exiting the area from west to
east during the day. Saturday night through Sunday should remain
mostly dry until the pattern becomes active again in the Sunday
night through Tuesday timeframe. The main catalyst for a few
rounds of storms through this period will be a slow moving deep
upper level trough over the western CONUS. Lead shortwaves will
provide the opportunity for showers Sunday night and Monday.
Monday night the upper level trough will move into the northern
Plains sagging a cold front into the area. This will bring a
chance for perhaps heavier rain Monday night into Tuesday.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2018

MVFR cigs btn 1-2kft have moved into the terminals (expect IXD)
this morning. These cigs are expected to affect the terminals thru
14Z-15Z before scattering. Otrw...VFR cigs are expected to prevail
thru the remainder of the TAF pd with sct high clouds this
afternoon and evening giving way to overcast mid-lvl clouds
tonight. Winds will be lgt out of the NW this morning become lgt
and vrb this afternoon. Winds will pick up to 5-10kts out of the
SE tonight.




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